TAIKA WAITITI - JOJO RABBIT
Waititi's charming anti-hate satire got off to a rocky start when the initial reviews were largely mixed, but it's rebounded in a big way. Jojo Rabbit was the winner of the Toronto International Film Festival's People's Choice Award, putting it in the driver's seat for a Best Picture nomination. And if it's a threat to win the top prize, then Waititi has to seriously be considered for Best Director. It goes without saying Jojo Rabbit's subject matter is quite sensitive, as it follows an aspiring Hitler youth grappling with his personal beliefs. This could have gone sideways, but Waititi channeled his usual sensibilities to keep things on track.
Some critics felt Jojo Rabbit wasn't as daring or biting in its critique of Nazism as it could have been, which might cause Waititi to lose points with voters. Still, there's no denying it was incredibly ambitious to follow-up a feel-good Marvel movie with a World War II dark comedy where Waititi plays a fictionalized version of Adolf Hitler. At first glance, Jojo Rabbit seems like more of a threat in Best Adapted Screenplay, but since Waititi managed a tricky balancing act in terms of tone and material, the directors branch may find his work too impressive to overlook.
BONG JOON-HO - PARASITE
International films face an uphill climb cracking Best Picture and Best Director, even with the new Academy membership aiming to broaden horizons. Alfonso Cuarón storming through the season last year with Roma is the exception, not the rule. If there is to be another foreign film that breaks through, all signs are pointing to it being Parasite, which earned nothing but steep praise out of festival screenings. Critics adored it for being a pitch-perfect, timely piece of cinema, and Parasite was even named one of the runner-ups for TIFF's People's Choice Award.
Bong Joon-Ho is a beloved figure in the industry, having previously directed films like Snowpiercer and Okja to widespread acclaim. If Parasite garners enough support among voters to land in the Best Picture field, there's a solid chance Bong gets swept into Director. This will be one of the more fascinating developments to keep tabs on as the season progresses. The directors branch isn't averse to injecting some international flair into their lineup. Remember, Cold War's Pawel Pawlikowski was a surprise inclusion in last year's Best Director field, over other choices like Bradley Cooper.
MARIELLE HELLER - A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
Heller had a film in the Oscar discussion last year with Can You Ever Forgive Me?, which earned three nominations. To the disappointment of many, Heller wasn't named a Best Director nominee. The Academy has a quick opportunity to atone for that snub in 2019 with A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, which pays tribute to the enduring legacy of Fred Rogers by telling a vital story of love, kindness, and forgiveness. The film may not be an overwhelming favorite on the awards circuit right now (it wasn't even a TIFF runner-up), but it seems to be in a good position to secure a couple of nods, most notably Tom Hanks in Best Supporting Actor.
If A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood catches steam, Heller may find herself in the Best Director race. Many of the reviews cited her work, as she framed the film as if it was an episode of Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood. And given the subject matter, there was a good chance the biopic could have fallen into the trap of being schmaltzy or overly-sentimental, but Heller's deft hand ensured that the emotional beats landed with the intended impact. In some respects, there's a meta element to this film. Hanks as Mr. Rogers seems like something almost too good to be true (just like the real Mr. Rogers), but Heller found a way to reach the audience and deliver a powerful message without coming across as hackneyed.
JAMES MANGOLD - FORD V FERRARI
Ford v Ferrari is another of the Oscar contenders that feels like it's in the second tier of Best Picture candidates. Most are in agreement the film is very good, though a prevailing belief is it sticks too close to the classic sports drama formula and (pardon the pun) doesn't reinvent the wheel. If that's the consensus, then Ford v Ferrari may have trouble moving up the power rankings as the season progresses. At this point, it should be able to land enough first-place votes to score a Best Picture nomination, but it isn't considered to be a leading player in many of the major categories. That likely hurts Mangold's chances of making Best Director.
But the Logan helmsman is deserving of a nod should Ford v Ferrari fare better than expected. Where the film excels is through the racing sequences, which are expertly staged by Mangold. It's here Ford v Ferrari elevates beyond its traditional genre trappings and thrills viewers with exciting set pieces. For that reason, the film should be a lock for technical categories like sound mixing and sound editing. It remains to be seen if the man who called the shots behind the camera can crack the field too.