GREEN BOOK



Every Oscar race has its surprise, and Green Book is certainly 2018's. Dropped on an unsuspecting Toronto crowd, this dramedy from director Peter Farrelly (one half of the Farrelly brothers duo behind Dumb and Dumber) became an instant crowd-pleaser. The film is based on a true story and follows New York bouncer Tony Lip (Viggo Mortensen), who takes a job driving African-American pianist Dr. Don Shirley (Mahershala Ali) through a tour in the deep South. While many critics agree the film takes a relatively conventional stance in its narrative and commentary on race relations, the performances of the perfectly-matched leads elevate the material, giving it a sense of authenticity.

Green Book's prospects received a major boost when it was named the winner of Toronto's People's Choice Award. Historically, that award has a lot of correlation with the Oscars. Since 2008, nine of the 10 winners received a Best Picture nomination from the Academy, and three of those went all the way to win. It's true stats can be broken, but things are working very well in Green Book's favor right now. With two likable actors at its center (who should make some noise in the acting races), a good script, and comparisons to films like Hidden Figures, Green Book was one of the biggest winners of the festivals.

THE FAVOURITE



Fox Searchlight is typically a major a key player in the Oscar race, and it looks like their lead dog this year is The Favourite. Directed by Yorgos Lanthimos, it's a period piece set in 18th century England, following a rivalry that emerges between Sarah Churchill (Rachel Weisz) and Abigail Masham (Emma Stone), as they compete to be the Queen of England's (Olivia Colman) favorite. The film received positive reviews out of Venice, with many people praising the performances. Colman in particular is a standout in the ensemble and should be in line for a nomination. Additionally, films like this are always a threat with the crafts, and The Favourite could get love from the production design and costume branches.

If there's anything that's preventing it from being the favorite, it's that Lanthimos' sensibilities may be too off-kilter for the Academy to full embrace. The trailer hinted at another wild and quirky ride from the man who gave us The Lobster, and it's worth pointing out Lobster only earned a Best Original Screenplay nod. It'll be interesting to see how this one ultimately performs with the Oscars, especially since there are some sights unseen (more on those in a minute) that could shake things up down the road.

IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK



Moonlight director Barry Jenkins is back with what looks to be another powerful, emotionally-wrenching drama. The Oscar-winner adapted James Baldwin's novel of the same name, which tells the story of a pregnant Harlem woman trying to prove her fiancé's innocence of a crime. Upon its original publication in 1974, the book received praise, so the potential is there for it to become a moving film. The trailer was certainly promising, and while reviews for Beale Street may not be as strong as the aforementioned Moonlight, critics are in agreement that it's a beautifully-crafted film that draws viewers in with its strong love story.

While Beale Street did not win the People's Choice award at Toronto, it was named one of the runner-ups, which typically bodes well for Oscar hopefuls. In the last six years, five TIFF People's Choice runner-ups went on to secure Best Picture nominations. That stat doesn't make Beale Street as much of a lock as Green Book, but it still indicates it has a passionate fan base and should be able to find support from the Academy. A couple of those runner-ups even won the top Oscar, so things are looking up for Beale Street after Toronto.


VICE


Previously referred to as Backseat, Adam McKay's unofficially titled Dick Cheney biopic is perhaps the biggest shoe left to drop this awards season. The film wasn't completed on time to screen at any of the early festivals this fall (so its quality is unknown), but the on-paper pedigree speaks for itself. McKay himself is an Oscar winner, taking home Best Adapted Screenplay in 2015 for The Big Short. The all-star cast also reads as a murderers row, led by the chameleon Christian Bale as Cheney (in another transformative performance), 5-time nominee Amy Adams (looking for her overdue first win), and last year's Best Supporting Actor, Sam Rockwell. Of all the sights unseen, this is the one with the most potential to crash the party late.

It remains to be seen what Annapurna Pictures' release pattern is. Vice will reach theaters in December, but speculation is it will show at AFI Fest in November. For what it's worth, there have been test screenings that are generating positive reactions. Hopefully, general audiences will get their first look at it soon. There's still no Vice trailer, though that could be an intentional strategy on the part of Annapurna's to not get lost in the festival shuffle.

BLACK PANTHER



Comic book films have been sporadically recognized by the Academy in non-technical categories, but never before has one been nominated for Best Picture. With Ryan Coogler's Black Panther becoming a global phenomenon ($1.3 billion gross), many believe this is the one that has the best chance to break the mold. Marvel Studios boss Kevin Feige is committing a sizable budget to an awards campaign, feeling Coogler's personal-driven narrative (which connects to themes relevant to today) is deserving of accolades.

Black Panther seemed like a lock for the Best Popular Film Oscar the Academy announced earlier this year, but it's now been confirmed the category is going to be put on hold as members iron out the criteria. At one point, Popular Film looked like a weak consolation prize for Panther, out of fear of disrespecting a pop culture phenomenon. But now, if the Academy wants to give Panther a prestigious accolade, Best Picture is the only category where they can. The roadblock here is if Black Panther can secure enough first place votes in the initial wave of balloting, which may be difficult since the Academy is notorious for being biased against genre fare. At the same time, Panther will prove to be difficult to ignore.