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Oppenheimer is unlike the previous works of Christopher Nolan, and yet, it will likely continue his $1 billion box office trend, but that's not necessarily bad. Christopher Nolan has become one of the most respected filmmakers of his generation thanks to his unique visual and narrative style and the themes he addresses in his movies, such as memory, identity, and time. Nolan is mostly known for his sci-fi works and his Dark Knight trilogy, so there’s a lot of expectation and anticipation around Oppenheimer, which is far from the genres he usually visits.

Oppenheimer is based on the book American Prometheus: The Triumph and Tragedy of J. Robert Oppenheimer, by Kai Bird and Martin J. Sherwin, and it tells the true story of theoretical physicist J. Robert Oppenheimer (Cillian Murphy), the director of the Los Alamos Laboratory during the Manhattan Project, and how his contributions led to the creation of the atomic bomb. The all-star cast, the premise, and Nolan as its director are more than enough to guarantee a box office success, but Oppenheimer might follow a Nolan box office trend that has been going on for years.

Oppenheimer Probably Won't Make $1 Billion (Just Like Nolan's Other Non-Batman Movies)

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Christopher Nolan’s works are guaranteed to be a critical and commercial success, but obviously, some have been a bigger box office success than others. The highest-grossing movies in Nolan’s career so far are The Dark Knight and The Dark Knight Rises, both surpassing $1 billion, while the rest of his works haven’t reached the $1 billion mark again. This comes as a surprise given Nolan’s box office reputation and how well-received his movies generally are with critics and viewers, but that doesn’t mean that they have been failures, either. Inception, one of his most popular works, made $836 million, followed by Interstellar with $716 million and Dunkirk with $527 million.

Sitting at the bottom of the list are Following, with $240,495, the critically acclaimed Memento with $40 million, and The Prestige, with $109 million. Tenet stands out in the box office ranking of Nolan’s movies because, even though it isn’t his lowest-grossing movie, it’s his first one to lose money at the box office, making $300 million against a $200 million budget. Even though Nolan hasn’t reached the $1 billion mark at the box office since The Dark Knight Rises, and with the exception of Tenet, he has still been quite successful, but unfortunately, it’s highly unlikely that Oppenheimer will break this box office streak and make $1 billion.

Oppenheimer Will Still Be A Box Office Success... But How Much Will It Make?

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Although it most likely won’t end Nolan’s current box office streak and reach the $1 billion mark, Oppenheimer will still be a box office success. While the COVID-19 pandemic isn’t over yet, the world is back to normal and theaters all over the world are open and working again, which has been quite beneficial for the film industry. What led to Tenet’s failure was Nolan’s insistence on releasing the movie theatrically during the pandemic, so Oppenheimer is, at least, guaranteed to break even thanks to it releasing during less chaotic times and, even better, in the summer. Oppenheimer will be sharing its release date with Greta Gerwig’s Barbie, but Nolan’s project is expected to make more money, and it needs to make, at least, $400 million to break even, and it’s predicted to make over $500 million.

Oppenheimer has its premise and visual style on its side, as it’s different from what Nolan has made in terms of it being based on a true story and starring real-life characters, and it’s also told partially in black-and-white, so there’s a lot of curiosity around how Nolan has used color and the absence of it to tell the story of a scientist and the atomic bomb. Oppenheimer, then, won’t break Christopher Nolan’s box office streak and will carry on with the trend of not reaching $1 billion, but it will still be a box office success.

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I have decent expectations on this movie. Hope Nolan can narrate it much more interestingly as compared to his previous two movies, which were very average for his standards. When it comes to awards though, I think he will get his Oscar next year unless there is some stiff competition, which is looking increasingly unlikely, following the trend in the last few years.