Scream 6's opening weekend box office projections dispel any worries about the film's increased budget. The film, which is the sixth in the slasher franchise, follows the survivors of Scream 2022 to New York City, where a brand new Ghostface killer begins a new spate of murders. Because of the box office success of the previous film, which had a strong opening weekend despite the surge of the omicron variant of COVID-19, the film's budget got an additional $10 million to bring its urban setting to life, raising its total to $35 million and making it the third highest-budgeted film in the franchise behind Scream 3 and Scream 4 at $40 million.
Per Variety, the release of Scream 6 on March 10 is currently projected to have an opening weekend gross between $35 and $40 million. This is more or less guaranteed to be the strongest opening weekend of the entire franchise (ahead of Scream 3's $34 million in 2000). However, the fact that it is set to make its budget back in a single weekend proves that the studio's financial risk is paying off in a big way.
Do These Numbers Mean Scream 7 is Going to Happen?
One thing to note is that a film's production budget is not the only money that must be recouped. Publicity and advertising for a movie can be that same total again depending on the cost of the campaign. However, Scream 6's theatrical release in international markets will likely go a long way toward covering those costs before the end of the slasher sequel's first weekend.
Considering how quickly a sequel was greenlit when the previous Scream opened at $30 million, it seems likely that Scream 7 is in the cards. However, there is a lot of competition in theaters this month that Scream 6 will have to prove its mettle against in order to have a solid run beyond its opening weekend. This includes the huge franchise tentpoles Shazam! Fury of the Gods, John Wick: Chapter 4, and Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves.
However, one thing that will spell good news for Scream 6 is that it's the only R-rated franchise entry until John Wick's release two weekends later. As the only adult audience offering in theaters against PG-13 tentpoles like the DC Universe's Shazam!, it will provide useful counterprogramming that should help propel its box office. If it continues to perform well in week 2, which seems likely, Scream 7 is probably a go.