CRACK Sydney colt Thinkin’ Big’s jockey Tim Clark is keeping an open mind about likely race tactics on the hot favourite in the Group 1 $2 million AAMI Victoria Derby (2500m) at Flemington on Saturday.

Most speed maps have Thinkin’ Big attempting an all-the-way win in the three-year-old classic, particularly after his dominant barrier-to-post frontrunning efforts to win the Gloaming Stakes and Caulfield Classic this spring.

But it is very difficult to try and lead throughout in a Victoria Derby — only Lion Tamer (2010) has achieved the feat this century — and Clark insists Thinkin’ Big is not simply a one-dimensional frontrunner.

“Thinkin’ Big is very uncomplicated, he’s easy to ride, and we don’t have to lead,’’ Clark said. “It will depend on how much pressure there is early. I don’t want to be in a speed duel going 2500m for the first time but he will be up there in a prominent position.’’

Clark, who is riding in his first Victoria Derby, said Thinkin’ Big’s racing manners will help the colt stay a strong 2500m.

“He pricks his ears and relaxes well in his races,’’ Clark said. “He conserves energy which will help him run out the trip.

“They are all going there for the first time but until they do it you never really know but he will give himself the chance to run it out. It will also depend on what sort of run he gets in the race. If we get a nice run I’m sure he will be strong late.’’

Gai Waterhouse remains the only female trainer to win the Victoria Derby, preparing Nothin’ Leica Dane when he scored a famous win over Octagonal in 1995.

Nothin’ Leica Dane won the Derby and ran second in the Melbourne Cup to Doriemus in his first preparation and Waterhouse is trying to do something similar with Thinkin’ Big.

“It’s why Thinkin’ Big had that little let-up after his third start,’’ Clark said.

“Gai and Adrian (Bott, co-trainer) were already thinking of the Victoria Derby and really he has had a faultless preparation.

“The colt has had a run over 1800m and then two at 2000m, racing every fortnight into the Derby and he hasn’t missed a beat.’’

Nothin’ Leica Dane won the Caulfield Classic in his final lead-up to the Victoria Derby and Waterhouse has followed a similar race program with Thinkin’ Big, who romped home at Caulfield last start by three lengths.

To complete the Derby synergies, Nothin’ Leica Dane is Thinkin’ Big’s maternal grandsire.

Thinkin’ Big goes into the Victoria Derby as the $3.20 TAB Fixed Odds favourite, an assessment form guru Gary Crispe says is accurate given the colt’s dominant last start win.

“He tops the Timeform ratings on the strength of two big wins this time in, first in the Gloaming Stakes at Rosehill and then last time in the Caulfield Classic,’’ Crispe said. “These wins have earned him a Timeform rating of 115 which is not a long way short of what is typically required to win the Derby.”

Crispe rated the Darren Weir-trained Extra Brut as the main danger to Thinkin’ Big.

HUGH THINKIN’ GAI HAS DERBY IN THE BAG
GAI Waterhouse and Adrian Bott have a mortgage on the Victoria Derby with Thinkin’ Big, according to Hugh Bowman.

Bowman, who rides $21 chance Home Ground, believes Thinkin’ Big is clearly superior.

“Personally, I think Gai’s horse would have to run well under par for anything else to win,” he said. “I think the favourite looks to have a bit of a mortgage on it, to be honest.

“Home Ground looks really well and he stays really well but he’s a bit of a lazy horse.

“There’s not a lot of depth to the race and my guy’s one of the better of chances.

“He comes in with winning form.

“Geelong Trial, is that good enough to win the Derby?

“Personally, I think Gai’s horse would have to run well under par for anything else to win.”

Bowman respects Savvy Oak’s talent, but questions his maturity.

“Savvy Oak has got talent but I don’t mentally he’s there,” Bowman said.

“I’ve ridden him twice and his mental state has let him down a little bit. There’s no question on his ability. He’s a smart horse.”

Bowman has a strong book of Derby rides, highlighted by Hartnell, Osborne Bulls and Lean Mean Machine. “I’m on Hartnell in the (Kennedy) mile, probably one of my better rides for the week,” he said. “I ride Osborne Bulls in the sprint race (TAB Stakes) Saturday and I’d be expecting him to be figuring in the finish.

“I ride Lean Mean Machine in the Coolmore (Stud Stakes) and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him win. I think I’m on a horse that can really stake a claim in the race, I really do.”

FAMILY RIDE FOR MCEVOY
KERRIN McEvoy is not prepared to surrender to market expectations as he bids for personal and family ambitions in the VRC Derby.

McEvoy rides Farooq for his uncle Tony as the pair chases breakthrough success in Victoria’s blue-riband classic.

“It’s always great to team up with the uncle and see if we can win a big one,” McEvoy said.

“Obviously the Derby is a race that’s eluded me. I’ve had four seconds – close seconds as well – so hopefully we can tick that box as well.

“It would be great to win for myself and it would be Tony’s first Derby as well.”

One of the world’s premier distance riders, McEvoy is optimistic Farooq, a TAB $14 chance, can contend.

“Happy with the barrier draw and this horse Farooq put up a brave effort at Geelong after doing a bit of work early,” McEvoy said. “He goes there with a nice chance to do well.”

Asked if the colt had the requisite stamina, McEvoy said: “They’ve all got to pass that test and he galloped out strongly and another 100m, he would have won the race.

“That shows he’s got some staying powers as well.”