CHARLIE Fellowes knows the odds are stacked against him.

Desperate to snare a golden ticket into the Melbourne Cup at Flemington on Saturday, the young Englishman hopes A Prince Of Arran can overcome a swarm of Australian-trained stayers to win the Lexus Stakes.

If so, the 32-year-old would be armed with the chance to become the first English trainer to win Australia’s most famous race after a string of near misses for Ed Dunlop and Luca Cumani.

Fellowes, who spent a year working with Lee Freedman at Mornington a decade ago, believes A Prince Of Arran is ready to build on his Herbert Power Stakes third to ruling Cup favourite Yucatan.

“I am confident that I have him going in the best form he could possibly be in,” he said.

“We just need the cards to fall right. We don’t want what happened last time to happen again. That would make it more difficult. But if he gets a clear run round I don’t see why he can’t run a big race.”

Fellowes has no doubt A Prince Of Arran should have finished closer to Yucatan – and ahead of Brimham Rocks – at Caulfield.

“Yucatan was very impressive, but it didn’t work out for us,” he said. “We got trapped on the rail, we then had to swing wide, we then got stopped for a run in the straight.

“I am not for a moment saying we would have beaten Yucatan, that would be a ridiculous statement. But the jockey (James McDonald) on the winner would not have been easing up on the line. I know that for free.

“We weren’t going to get in front of him. If we had beaten Brimham Rocks and finished second we would have been 27th rather than 28th in the Cup order of entry.”

Fellowes rates Brimham Rocks and Lindsay Park’s Jaameh as the two horses to beat in the Lexus. “Brimham Rocks obviously,” he said. “Jaameh’s form in England is nothing compared to ours, but he has come here and improved. It’s different out here.”

If A Prince Of Arran fails in the Lexus, he will head to next week’s Queen Elizabeth Stakes on the final day of the VRC carnival.

LAST CHANCE FOR CUP WANNABES
SO, it comes down to this — win and you are in the Melbourne Cup, lose and the dream is over for another year.

For 11 stayers contesting the Lexus Stakes and Victoria Derby at Flemington on Saturday, only winning will do.

The Group 2 $300,000 Lexus Stakes (2500m) has a 13-horse field, with only Tally and Ladies First not among Melbourne Cup entries. Lexus runners Runaway (22nd) and Sole Impact (26th) are on the borderline of getting into the Cup field.

But for the connections of other Lexus entries — English stayer A Prince Of Arran, The Metropolitan winner Patrick Erin, Sixties Groove, Brimham Rocks, Gallic Chieftain, Rising Red, Jaameh, Northwest Passage and Yogi, the equation is simple — they must win to get into the Cup.

A Prince Of Arran, who charged home for third to Melbourne Cup favourite Yucatan in the Herbert Power Stakes, is the $4 favourite on TAB Fixed Odds for the Lexus Stakes ahead of Jaameh ($4.60) with Patrick Erin at $5.50.

Hall of Fame trainer David Hayes has Moonee Valley Gold Cup winner Ventura Storm safely in the Melbourne Cup field and he is banking on stablemate Jaameh joining him by winning the Lexus Stakes.

“Jaameh was a little unlucky not to beat Avilius in the Bart Cummings and that horse is one of the favourites for the Cup,’’ Hayes said. “The way he has trained on, we are quietly confident Jaameh will earn a Cup start and if he does make the field for Tuesday, he will run a very good race because he’s such a genuine stayer.’’

Adrian Bott, who trains in partnership with Gai Waterhouse, said Geelong Cup winner Runaway was being reserved for the Melbourne Cup.

“We are confident Runaway, who is 22nd in order of entry, will get into the Cup field on Tuesday,’’ Bott said. “He’s had a very good preparation and we just feel he doesn’t need another run before the Melbourne Cup.’’

This situation is very different with Runaway’s stablemate Northwest Passage, who needs to win the Lexus Stakes.

“We are really hoping Northwest Passage can get into the Melbourne Cup,’’ Bott said. “Although he hasn’t won a race this spring, he’s building nicely. His run to finish second at Geelong behind Runaway showed he was back to his best form.’’

Thinkin’ Big is the $3.20 favourite for the $2 million AAMI Victoria Derby (2500m) and needs to win to get into the Melbourne Cup.

Bott said a decision on whether Thinkin’ Big backed up in the Melbourne Cup would be determined by whether the colt won the Derby impressively and pulled up in good order.

Godolphin’s trainer James Cummings is ready to play the role of spoiler with Tally, despite the stayer’s three unplaced runs this spring.

“Don’t be put off by his last couple of runs,’’ Cummings said. “The blinkers go back on and his trackwork is that of a horse who is ready to run a big race.”