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Will Avatar: The Way Of Water Become #1 At All-Time Box Office?
Avatar: The Way of Water earned $2 billion at the worldwide box office faster than the original Avatar, so does it have a shot at passing its predecessor and becoming the new highest-grossing movie of all time? Only six movies (including Avatar: The Way of Water) have ever earned more than $2 billion globally, so just how much more will James Cameron's Avatar sequel earn, and how will it rank among the top all-time box office earners?
Hot on the heels of #5 ranked Avengers: Infinity War and #4 ranked Star Wars: The Force Awakens, with a little more distance between #3 ranked Titanic, Avatar: The Way of Water isn't done climbing the box office ranks just yet, but just how far it will go remains to be seen. #2 ranked Avengers: Endgame earned $2.8 billion and #1 ranked Avatar earned $2.9 billion, so Avatar: The Way of Water would need to earn at least 50% more than its current total to reach that level. It's not an impossible feat, although it'd take a big stretch to get there. Here's how Avatar: The Way of Water's box office currently compares to the original Avatar.
Avatar 1's Box Office is Outpacing Avatar: The Way of Water
Avatar: The Way of Water's $134.1 million domestic opening weekend box office beat the original Avatar's $77 million by over $57 million, and that lead grew to over $91 million in the first 21 days. In their 4th weekend, the tide began to turn as Avatar started slowly making up the difference. Avatar: The Way of Water is about to break $600 million domestically and still maintains a $46 million lead on the original Avatar, which had earned almost $592 million at the same point in its run, but at the current pace, Avatar: The Way of Water's to-date cumulative total will fall behind Avatar's in 2-3 weeks.
Of course, it's possible Avatar: The Way of Water could see a late surge and extend its lead against the original Avatar, but with Avatar averaging 70% more in daily earnings for the past week, it would take an especially dramatic change of pace from Avatar: The Way of Water to stay ahead of Avatar to the end of its run. Additionally, Avatar: The Way of Water has earned 70 percent of its box office internationally, while Avatar earned over 73 percent of its box office internationally, so Avatar: The Way of Water would need to pick up the pace internationally even more than it does domestically to see numbers similar to the original Avatar.
Avatar 1 Didn't Earn Its Whole Box Office In its First Release
Another factor putting Avatar: The Way of Water at a disadvantage is Avatar didn't earn the entirety of its $2.9 billion in its initial release, so even if Avatar: The Way of Water stays ahead of Avatar until the end of its run it still wouldn't beat its total. The first Avatar only earned $2.7 billion in its initial run, extending that by $44 million with a 2010 special extended edition release after the original had been in theaters for 34 weeks. In 2021, Avatar was re-released in China, earning another $58 million and the 2022 remaster re-release earned $76 million, bringing the total to over $2.9 billion.
Of course, there've been reports of much longer cuts of Avatar: The Way of Water, so it could also have an extended cut re-release in store as well, but that still wouldn't account for the $135 million the original Avatar earned in the decade since. Additionally, with an entirely different post-COVID theatrical landscape and the impending releases of three more Avatar sequels, it's not clear if the market will be as ripe for Avatar: The Way of Water re-releases when additional sequels are right around the corner, although considering James Cameron's success with re-releases (Titanic has earned over $350 million from re-releases), it's not out of the question.
What Avatar 2 Needs to Do to Earn More Than Avatar 1
As it stands, Avatar: The Way of Water has earned $598.4 million domestically and over $2.02 billion in total. By the end of its initial run, Avatar had earned $749.8 million domestically, meaning Avatar: The Way of Water needs another $150 million to pass it. Avatar: The Way of Water just finished its sixth weekend, and after its own sixth weekend the original Avatar went on to earn nearly $200 million more, so it may not seem too far outside the realm of possibility, but with Avatar's average day-to-day outpacing Avatar: The Way of Water at the equivalent point in its run, it's still a tall order.
Granted, both of James Cameron's other top-grossing movies, Avatar and Titanic, are notorious for defying projections with excessively long box office legs, so it's not outside the realm of possibility that Avatar: The Way of Water also sees a late surge to put it ahead of Avatar's pace once again, but even assuming Avatar: The Way of Water's box office slows from its current pace at a similar rate as the original Avatar, it just barely reaches the $750 million domestic total of Avatar's original release, which still doesn't account for multiple re-releases or its outsized international total.
So, while the possibility to Avatar: The Way of Water outgrossing the original Avatar can't be entirely ruled out just yet, even most optimistic predictions suggest it will come up short of Avatar's initial run. Since Avengers: Endgame's $2.8 billion is so close to Avatar's total, it means the same is likely true of Avatar: The Way of Water potential to pass Avengers: Endgame as well. Most likely, as we previously calculated, Avatar: The Way of Water will earn at least $2.5 billion, making it the #3 highest grossing movie of all time ahead of Titanic and behind Avengers: Endgame and the original Avatar.
Avatar: The Way of Water reaching the #3 all-time spot might be considered a "disappointment" only in the sense that James Cameron earned the #1 spot with both his last two movies, Titanic and Avatar, but being the director responsible for three of the top four highest grossing movies of all time is more than an impressive enough accomplishment with Avatar: The Way of Water still earning its spot as one of the most impressive box office performances in history.
