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Survivor: Sandra Diaz-Twine’s Chances of Being Season 40’s Winner
Going into the 40th season of Survivor, Sandra Diaz-Twine is in a class of her own. As the only two-time winner in the show's illustrious history, the four-time player (five if you count her appearance on Island of the Idols) has an opportunity to end any debate of the greatest Survivor competitor of all time.
As much of a luminary as Sandra has become to the franchise, she surprisingly wasn't one of the most popular winners from the early seasons. She was underestimated in Heroes vs. Villains, most notably by Russell Hantz, following her victory in Pearl Islands. Sandra managed to get more votes than both Russell and previous winner Parvati Shallow to claim her second million dollar check. Fourteen seasons later, on Game Changers, Sandra played arguably her best game yet despite falling short of the merge. She controlled the action early on, taking out Tony Vlachos and, after the swap, leading a blindside of J.T. Thomas. The second swap put her in the minority and she was swiftly taken out. Sandra returned alongside Rob Mariano in season 39 as a mentor on the Island of the Idols, where the two gave "advice" to the contestants in a twist that never quite made sense but provided some laughs along the way. Now, she's back to play again.
The argument that Sandra is the best to play the game is a sound one. What she lacks in physical strength, she makes up in social awareness. She plays like a chameleon, seamlessly adapting to each situation in a way that suits her game the best. She comes into Winners at War with far more experience than most of her competition, and had plenty of time to construct a game plan - and build an alliance - during her time on the Island of the Idols with Boston Rob.
Why Sandra won't win
None of the 19 other winners will want to let the only two-time winner have a chance at Sole Survivor. While every contestant enters this season with enough external reasons to be an early target, Sandra's reason is the most relevant to the theme. She is the most obvious threat to get rid of first, even if her social charm and lack of challenge prowess make her seem disarming. These players are too smart to discount Sandra; they won't make the same mistake as Russell of assuming they can drag her to the end as a goat; and they may even be too afraid to align with her in the first place.
Prediction: 20th place
If Sandra's tribe loses the first immunity challenge, all eyes will turn on her, for obvious reasons. Like in Game Changers, her quick ouster will more so be a compliment to her legacy than a detriment to her inability to forge connections. We likely won't think of Sandra any less, and it will immediately draw excitement to who will join her in the two-timers club.
Note: With Edge of Extinction, the boot order may be a little confusing depending on who, if anyone, quits the game and who returns. For prediction purposes, to keep things simple, this much-maligned mechanic will be ignored.
Survivor premieres Wednesday, Feb. 12 at 8 p.m. EST on CBS.
