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Oscars 2020: Best Picture Predictions
As awards season begins to heat up, we're taking a look at the leading contenders for Best Picture at the 2020 Oscars. Over the course of the past month, a plethora of hopefuls premiered at various film festivals, including Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. Some of these pictures delivered on the promise many felt they had, while others saw their Oscar dreams disappear. Of course, nothing is guaranteed at the end of September, but there's now a clearer picture where it's easier to separate the top tier films from the pretenders.
There remain a handful of major films that remain unseen, waiting for their chance to shake things up and crash the race. But, with Martin Scorsese's The Irishman premiering in New York, most of the shoes have officially dropped and people have weighed in. In some cases, movies have already won awards that strengthen their chance at the Oscars. Without further ado, here's our rundown of the leading candidates.
MARRIAGE STORY
Odds: +400
It remains to be seen if the Academy will give a streaming title Best Picture (though, Roma came close last year), but Marriage Story may have the tools to pull it off. Noah Baumbach's divorce drama earned nothing but rave reviews out of Venice, Telluride, and Toronto (where it was one of the runner-ups for the People's Choice Award) for telling such a genuinely authentic and heartbreaking story. The film is a showcase for Adam Driver and Scarlett Johansson, who are both frontrunners in their respective acting categories. It's worth remembering the acting branch is the biggest in the Academy, and they love films where actor demonstrate their abilities at the top level. They could eat something like Marriage Story up.
Marriage Story also looks like a film that could thrive on a preferential ballot. So far, it hasn't garnered any controversy or backlash, and just about everyone seems to like it. Even if the film isn't some voters' first choice, it appears to be the type of picture that will land the necessary second and third place votes to leap ahead of the competition. Baumbach has just one Oscar nomination on his résumé to date (Original Screenplay for The Squid and the Whale), but he should be upping that count considerably here.
ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
Odds: +500
Quentin Tarantino's love letter to 1960s Hollywood was able to remain a viable Oscar player amidst all the festival craziness. Sometimes, an early release date can be a detriment to a film's chances, but Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is still seen as one of the ones to beat. The Academy always love a good movie about the entertainment industry, and this one has plenty of star power to boot (Tarantino, Leonardo DiCaprio, and Brad Pitt). After the film released, several industry professional sung its praises, and the demand for the Academy members screening was so high, a second one needed to be scheduled. This is a film voters are onboard with and seem to love. Plus, the high box office doesn't hurt either.
If there's anything hurting Once Upon a Time in Hollywood right now, it's that its résumé isn't squeaky-clean. The film was subject to some controversy (which seems to have died down), and it'll be interesting to see if that impacts its chances in any way. Additionally, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is a different beast than the usual Tarantino film, and left some audiences divided on its merits. It's much more arthouse than plot-driven (a la Django Unchained or Inglourious Basterds), so how will it fare on a preferential ballot? That's a question that needs to be answered.
JOJO RABBIT
Odds: +800
Taikia Waititi's anti-hate satire has already had an interesting awards season. Premiering at Toronto, initial reviews were largely mixed; some people thought Jojo Rabbit was one of the best films of the year, while others felt it wasn't as daring as it could have been given its subject matter, and lacked real edge in its messaging. For a while, it looked like Jojo Rabbit's Oscar chances were kaput, and its fate would be a well-intentioned, admirable misfire that got overshadowed by the other awards contenders. And then a funny thing happened. As Jojo Rabbit's review scores steadily improved, it took home the coveted People's Choice Award at TIFF.
This decade, the only TIFF winner to not receive a Best Picture nomination is 2011's Where Do We Go Now?. Major contenders like La La Land, The King's Speech, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, and last year's winner Green Book all won the People's Choice award. Again, nothing can be considered a lock at this point in time, but it would buck a massive trend if Jojo Rabbit got snubbed. The TIFF win was just what the film needed to stay alive in the race, and now it's probably a player in other big categories too.
THE IRISHMAN
Odds: N/A
Prior to The Irishman, Martin Scorsese released seven films this century. Five of those went on to earn Best Picture nominations. At this point, it would be quite a shock if the director's latest crime epic didn't make it six out of eight. Making its much-anticipated debut at the New York Film Festival, The Irishman was lauded as a masterpiece from Scorsese, telling a story that was equal parts funny and poignant. This is a genre Scorsese is well-versed in, but The Irishman is no retread of Goodfellas or Casino. It's a more reflective rumination on a life in crime, delivering a powerful emotional punch.
Even by Scorsese's standards, The Irishman was an ambitious work. Between its extensive de-aging visual effects and three and a half hour runtime, there were a few ways where this film could have gone wrong. But under Scorsese's direction, it's another feather in his cap, and one Netflix will be very excited about. After all they've invested in this film, they're going to give The Irishman a massive push. This and Marriage Story are their top dogs in the race.
