Oscars 2019 Best Picture Predictions

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Oscars season is upon us, which means it's time to start thinking about which films could be nominated for Best Picture this year. With summer coming to a close, the film landscape is about to be dominated by numerous festivals (Venice, Toronto, Telluride, etc.), which are typically stacked with Academy hopefuls looking to make an early impression. Of course, some contenders will end up falling short of their aspirations, but the Oscar race typically takes shape in the fall.

For a while, last year was one of the more open races in a while, with numerous high-quality films receiving much acclaim and accolades. It remains to be seen how this year's crop stacks up (many of them are unseen as of this writing), but there are a number of likely possibilities that cinephiles will enjoy following as awards season heats up. Here are some we feel could make a big splash.

BLACKKKLANSMAN

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If there is a frontrunner in August, it would have to be Spike Lee's BlacKkKlansman. After premiering at Cannes, the film opened in theaters earlier this month, earning near-universal praise. Critics liked Lee's mastery over BlacKkKlansman's tone, which deftly balanced dark humor with harrowing drama to create a unique experience only he could deliver. Besides the craftsmanship and the performances, the film is also noteworthy for providing some timely social commentary, with its closing credits serving as a painful reminder for how much further there is to go.

In their campaign, Focus Features could also play up the "overdue" narrative, which would likely benefit Lee. Throughout his prolific career, he's only been nominated twice - and never for Best Director. His last nod came back in 1997 for Best Documentary (4 Little Girls). Lee received an Honorary Award a couple of years ago, but this could be his best chance at taking home a competitive Oscar.

A STAR IS BORN

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Earlier this decade, Bradley Cooper became an Academy favorite, earning nominations in three straight years. Ever since his turn in 2014's American Sniper, the actor hasn't heard his name called. That could change this year thanks to the latest remake of the classic, A Star is Born. All of the previous iterations (released in 1937, 1954, and 1976) all earned nominations - some of which came in the major categories. However, the '76 version only received nods for its music and technical aspects. Cooper, who also directs, stars alongside Lady Gaga.

Cooper's A Star is Born premieres at Venice and will also play at Toronto and San Sebastián prior to its theatrical release in early October. Theater exhibitors, perhaps in an attempt to sell tickets, are already singing its praises, feeling that it will earn Oscar nominations across the board. Based on the trailer, Cooper and Gaga look to give powerful, emotional performances as star-crossed lovers who go on a wild journey together. And as evidenced by La La Land landing a record-tying 14 nominations, the Academy really enjoys a well-made musical.

FIRST MAN

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Speaking of La La Land, its director Damien Chazelle is back in the fold with First Man, a biopic about astronaut Neil Armstrong. The filmmaker reunites with Ryan Gosling (who plays Armstrong), and it's clear distributor Universal has high hopes for the project. First Man landed the coveted opening slot at Venice, which is where La La Land made its world premiere. In his young career, Chazelle has directed two Best Picture nominees (Whiplash is the other), so his films are always a perennial threat in the awards race.

Films about historical figures have long been a sweet spot for the Academy, and the trailer for First Man was very promising. It looks to be an intense, thrilling drama buoyed by strong performances and Chazelle's continuously evolving skill set. Maybe after being part of the infamous Best Picture snafu a couple years ago, the youngest Best Director winner can see his film go all the way for real this time.

ROMA

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Alfonso Cuarón delivered one of the most breathtaking technological achievements of the decade with Gravity, for which he took home Best Director. Cinephiles have waited anxiously to see what he'll do next, and now his next film is right around the corner. Titled Roma, it's a period piece set in the 1970s that follows a middle-class family in Mexico City over the course of a year. The recently released trailer impressed many with its lush, beautiful black-and-white cinematography, promising to be a unique experience.

Netflix will release the film in early October, but first Roma has its world premiere at Venice. That worked well for Gravity, which debuted at the festival back in 2013. Cuarón and his team will be hoping history repeats itself, and right now, many are encouraged by what they see.

BACKSEAT

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This film doesn't have a trailer yet (or even an official title), but the on-paper pedigree speaks for itself. The Big Short's Adam McKay is following up that searing takedown of the 2008 housing crisis with a biopic about former U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney. He's assembled an all-star cast, including Christian Bale (who plays Cheney in another jaw-dropping physical transformation), Amy Adams (a 5-time nominee looking for her first win), Steve Carell (who's been nominated before), and Sam Rockwell (coming off his Best Supporting Actor win for Three Billboards). For now, this one sounds too good to ignore and could be a contender in several categories.

Annapurna Pictures has distribution rights, with a theatrical release planned for December. Backseat looks like it's going to miss most of the fall festivals, but the prevailing belief is it could follow the Big Short game plan and debut at the 2018 AFI Fest. The Big Short won the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay, and was also nominated in Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actor (Bale), and Best Film Editing.

THE FAVOURITE

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As per usual, Fox Searchlight will be a studio to watch during Oscar season, and arguably their lead dog is The Favourite. Directed by Yorgos Lanthimos, it follows the rivalry between Sarah Churchill (Rachel Weisz) and Abigail Masham (Emma Stone) as they compete for the affections of the Queen of England (Olivia Coleman). A teaser trailer was released earlier this year, promising an absurd and strange film from the man who brought us The Lobster.

If there's anything preventing The Favourite from being, well, the favorite right now, it's that it could be a little too quirky and offbeat for the Academy's taste. After all, the aforementioned Lobster was only nominated for Best Original Screenplay, so The Favoruite could fall to a similar fate. It's set to have its world premiere at Venice before opening in theaters this November (the thick of Oscar season). Fox Searchlight definitely thinks this one could be a contender, so we'll see.

IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK

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Moonlight director Barry Jenkins is back with what looks to be another powerful, emotionally-wrenching drama. The Oscar-winner adapted James Baldwin's novel of the same name, which tells the story of a pregnant Harlem woman trying to prove her fiancé's innocence of a crime. Upon its original publication in 1974, the book received praise, so the potential is there for it to become a moving film. Especially with someone like Jenkins at the helm, it should be an extremely well-crafted, poetic work. The trailer was certainly promising, selling audiences on the love story at its center and the desperation of the situation.

Also working in If Beale Street Could Talk's favor is producer Dede Gardner of Plan B Entertainment, who's something of an Oscar whisperer. Five of her films have been nominated for Best Picture, and two (including Moonlight) won. She does an excellent job of picking projects to back, and should have another contender here. Even if Beale Street doesn't take home the top prize, it feels like a shoo-in for a nomination. The film premieres at Toronto in September before is November theatrical release.

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BEAUTIFUL BOY

Timothée Chalamet became a cinephile favorite thanks to his work in last year's Call Me By Your Name and Lady Bird, and now he's back in the awards race. Beautiful Boy is based on the true story of father David (Steve Carell) and his son Nic Sheff (Chalamet), specifically detailing Nic's addiction to meth and the struggles that came from that. The film marks director Felix Van Groeningen's first English-language project. The trailer, released earlier this year, hinted at a pair of captivating performances from the two leads as they portray a devastating and emotional relationship.

Like Beale Street, Beautiful Boy has the backing of Plan B and Gardner, so it's an easy pick for a Best Picture nominee at this stage in the game. It will have its world premiere at Toronto in September, with Amazon Studios releasing it in theaters this October. The memoir on which this movie is based reached the top of the New York Times Best Seller list in 2008 and received widespread acclaim, so the creative team is drawing from strong material.

BOY ERASED

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Not to be outdone by Chalamet, Lucas Hedges (another favorite on the indie circuit) found his own awards hopeful with Boy in the title. We speak of Boy Erased, the new drama from director Joel Edgerton. It is based on the memoir by Garrard Conley, wo wrote about his time going to gay conversion therapy. Hedges plays a character by the name of Jared Eamons, who is based on Conley. Nicole Kidman and Russell Crowe co-star as Jared's parents. Crowe's character, Marshall Eamons, is a Baptist preacher and forces his son to enroll in the program.

Like most entries on our list, Boy Erased has a trailer and it does a good job of setting up the family drama at the story's center. Hedges could be in line for his second nomination, following his performance in Manchester by the Sea. Edgerton is bringing is film to the Toronto Film Festival in September, and it will be released in theaters in November.

BLACK PANTHER

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Comic book films have been sporadically recognized by the Academy in non-technical categories, but never before has one been nominated for Best Picture. With Ryan Coogler's Black Panther becoming a global phenomenon ($1.3 billion gross), many believe this is the one that has the best chance to break the mold. Marvel Studios boss Kevin Feige is committing a sizable budget to an awards campaign, feeling Coogler's personal-driven narrative (which connects to themes relevant to today) is deserving of accolades.

The one roadblock that could prevent this from happening is the introduction of the Best Popular Film category, which seems specifically made to "honor" blockbusters. Though it's possible for films to be nominated in both fields, the Academy could choose to bypass Panther for Best Picture and give it Popular Movie as an insulting consolation prize. Of course, there's no guarantee Popular Film is going to still happen, since some Academy members wouldn't be surprised if the organization backtracked following the severe backlash.

WIDOWS

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Steve McQueen, director of the Best Picture winning 12 Years a Slave, makes his return with this crime drama. Based on the TV series of the same name, Widows follows a group of, well, widows who decide to take matters into their own hands when their husbands are killed during a job. The ensemble is spearheaded by award-winning actress Viola Davis, and the cast includes a number of other big names. Both of the Widows trailers have teased a different kind of heist film and the film has the potential to be something special. That McQueen chose this for his directorial followup speaks volumes about its quality.

It remains to be seen if Widows can transcend its genre trappings, but Fox feels confident it can. The film will have its world premiere at the Toronto Film Festival in September, a couple months before its November theatrical premiere. Given the talent involved, Widows has an outside chance of cracking the lineup, especially if any of the others fail to live up to expectations.

THE FRONT RUNNER

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About a decade ago, director Jason Reitman seemed like he would be a permanent fixture at the Oscars. His Juno and Up in the Air are two of the most acclaimed films of the late 2000s, receiving a bevy of nominations each. Reitman has had quite the fall from grace in the years since, with offerings like Labor Day and Men, Women & Children being widely panned. He had a minor comeback of sorts when the Charlize Theron vehicle Tully was well-received. That drama about an overwhelmed mother isn't making much noise on the awards circuit, but this one might do the trick.

In The Front Runner, Hugh Jackman stars as politician Gary Hart, who was (as the title suggests) the front runner to land the Democratic presidential nomination in 1988. Unfortunately for him, his campaign went up in smoke when his extramarital affair became public knowledge, and he never recovered. The Front Runner is described as a dark comedy, so hopefully the promise Reitman demonstrated on Juno and Up in the Air reemerges.

MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS

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Saorise Ronan and Margot Robbie competed against each other in last year's Best Actress race, and now they go head-to-head in the same movie. Based on the true story of Mary Stuart (Ronan) attempting to overthrow her cousin Elizabeth (Robbie) as Queen, this has all the makings of a classic Oscar film. Not only are the talents in front of the camera awards-worthy, the behind-the-scenes crew is top notch as well. Period pieces tend to find love in areas like costume design and production design, so it isn't farfetched for Mary Queen of Scots to find enough support to land a Best Picture nomination. A trailer was released earlier this year and hinted at a compelling drama.

If there's one thing that gives us pause, it's the fact distributor Focus Features hasn't yet announced a festival premiere for the film. It opens in theaters in November, and that may very well be its world premiere. A festival screening is not a prerequisite for an Oscar film, but it's typically expected. Focus is also likely to prioritize BlacKkKlansman on the campaign, and while studios can balance multiple contenders, they're also the ones behind Boy Erased. Mary Queen of Scots could end up getting lost in the shuffle.

CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?

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The poor box office performance of The Happytime Murders illustrated Melissa McCarthy needs a break from her traditional comedy schtick. Luckily for her, such a change-of-pace is on the horizon. In Can You Ever Forgive Me?, the Oscar-nominated actress stars as writer Lee Israel, who attempts to revive her floundering career by forging and selling letters she claims to be from famous people (playwrights and actors). It all goes great until suspicions are raised. Richard E. Grant co-stars as Lee's friend Jack, who helps take part in the scam.

The trailer demonstrated this is not the usual McCarthy vehicle, teasing a real dramatic performance (with comedic moments peppered throughout) from her. We'll have a better idea of how this one stacks up once it premieres at Toronto, but Can You Ever Forgive Me? could be a more "classical" alternative to The Favoruite for Fox Searchlight. It'll be interesting to see which one they prioritize when the race really heats up. Right now, The Favourite has more buzz, but things could change.

THE OLD MAN AND THE GUN

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Robert Redford is an undisputed legend of cinema, with a career that spans several decades. With The Old Man and the Gun, he's retiring, so the Academy may find it hard to pass up the opportunity to honor Redford once more. He's surprisingly received only one Oscar so far (Best Director for Ordinary People) and has three other nominations. Redford also won the Honorary Award in 2002.

For his swan song, Redford is playing bank robber Forrest Tucker - the titular old man with the gun. Based on the New Yorker article, it tells the story of the 70-year old Forrest, who pulled off a string of heists. The trailers are noteworthy for their retro feel (this looks like a film that could have been made in the '70s), and Redford promises to be as charming as ever in the lead role. One does have to wonder, however, if this will be more of a Best Actor play for the star, as the easygoing nature of the picture could make it seem a bit "light" in comparison to the other films in the discussion. The Old Man and the Gun premieres in Toronto in September, just a few weeks before its theatrical release.

Of course, this list is not meant to be all-inclusive. These are merely a brief collection of titles that stand a chance at landing a spot on the Best Picture list. Surely, the lineup will continue to evolve until the nominations come out in January. Awards season is just getting started, so it's time to buckle up.