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Oppenheimer vs. Barbie: Who Will Win 2023’s Biggest Box Office Battle?
Barbie vs. Oppenheimer is shaping up to be the most exciting box office battle of 2023, with either Greta Gerwig’s doll or Christopher Nolan’s father of the atomic bomb emerging as the winner. Barbie is Oscar nominee Greta Gerwig’s first film since her 2019 adaptation of Little Women, with Oppenheimer being Oscar nominee Christopher Nolan’s first movie since his divisive 2020 action thriller Tenet. Both Oppenheimer and Barbie are scheduled to premiere on July 21, 2023, which is set to be one of the biggest box office weekends of the year given their high anticipation, notable directors, and star-studded casts.
Oppenheimer is a biopic about the life of J. Robert Oppenheimer, the theoretical physicist regarded as World War II’s “father of the atomic bomb,” whereas Barbie is a satirical fantasy rom-com about the title Mattel doll. While they cover completely different genres and appeals, Barbie and Oppenheimer are two of the most highly anticipated 2023 movies, which means they’ll be competing not only at the box office, but also at the Academy Awards later on. Though the Tom Cruise-starring Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One is releasing the week before and the MCU’s The Marvels is premiering the week after, all eyes will be on the box office race between the unlikely opponents Oppenheimer and Barbie on July 21, 2023.
Barbie Will Do Great, But Oppenheimer Will Still Make More Money
Barbie is apt to bring in an impressive haul at the box office, but it will likely be overshadowed by Oppenheimer. Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling have significant pull with their A-list status, but if potential audience members are weighing the options between Barbie and Oppenheimer, then the latter – which, as a Nolan film, is designed for optimal theatrical viewing – is the favored champion. Barbie may appeal to more casual viewers than Oppenheimer, but Christopher Nolan’s visually immersive direction, massive A-list cast, and filmmaking achievements – including practical nuclear bomb explosions – fit the formula of movies that make more money at the box office.
Christopher Nolan is also a massive powerhouse at the box office and holds the title of the 7th-highest-grossing director of all time, with Tenet even managing to earn over $350 million worldwide despite the fact that it was released toward the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Greta Gerwig hasn’t come near Nolan’s box office achievements and theatrical reputation, but she has also only directed two films. Even so, Gerwig’s independent film Lady Bird grossed nearly eight times its budget, with Little Women (2019) earning an impressive $220 million at the box office against a $40 million budget.
Given Barbie is a much more ambitious mainstream project than her previous ventures, Gerwig’s box office prowess is expected to be even greater in 2023, but perhaps not to the point where she topples Box Office King Christopher Nolan on opening weekend. Both Barbie and Oppenheimer mark new genre territory for Gerwig and Nolan, but since most of the teasers for Oppenheimer have played up the action elements of the story, audiences may prefer another theater-viewing-worthy cinematic exhibition from Nolan. Barbie will have a great opening weekend, but Oppenheimer is more likely to maintain ticket sales across several weeks at the box office.
How Much Will Oppenheimer & Barbie Make At The Box Office?
While Barbie and Oppenheimer are both expected to have successful box office performances, they’ll still face obstacles from Mission: Impossible 7 and The Marvels, which will decrease their earnings in the weekends following their premiere date. Oppenheimer may only have a $100 million budget, but with adjusted marketing expenses, Variety reported that Christopher Nolan’s Cillian Murphy-starring 2023 film will need to gross at least $400 million to earn a profit. Barbie also has a budget of $100 million, but it likely won’t need as much as Oppenheimer to break even.
Considering Tenet made nearly $400 million at the 2020 box office, Oppenheimer should be able to surpass this gross. If Oppenheimer receives proper marketing and critical acclaim ahead of its release, Christopher Nolan’s movie is predicted to make upwards of $500 million at the 2023 worldwide box office, perhaps even $600 million given Nolan’s 2017 war drama Dunkirk earned $527 million. While sci-fi movies tend to fare well commercially, especially during summer blockbuster season, Oppenheimer isn’t expected to mimic Top Gun: Maverick's record-breaking box office success and reach the coveted $1 billion mark in 2023.
Though Barbie’s satirical premise is aimed at adult audiences, its PG-13 rating means that older kids and families could still make up a key portion of viewer demographics, which isn’t apt to be the case for Oppenheimer. If Barbie can pull in this demographic, it’s predicted to reach at least $300 million at the box office. The adult-targeting film Elvis made over $286 million at the 2022 box office, and since Barbie has already garnered substantial buzz in the year before its release, Greta Gerwig’s movie is expected to far surpass this gross. Barbie's popularity could even cause it to make $500 million at the box office, but isn’t likely to exceed this number.
Oppenheimer Beating Barbie Would Be An Even Bigger Nolan Win
An added incentive for Oppenheimer to beat Gerwig's film at the July 21 weekend box office is that Barbie is being released by Warner Bros. Oppenheimer is Christopher Nolan’s first movie since Memento (2000) that hasn’t been distributed by Warner Bros., as the filmmaker parted ways with the studio after Warner Bros. announced its intention to release all of its 2021 movies simultaneously in theaters and on HBO Max. Nolan then shopped out Oppenheimer to other studios until Universal granted his demands for the project, officially ending his more than 20-year relationship with WB.
With each studio looking for blockbuster projects in this age after the pandemic changed the box office business for good, Universal gaining Christopher Nolan is a huge feat. It also means trouble for Warner Bros. as its biggest release of summer 2023 goes up against Nolan’s forthcoming Universal film. Oppenheimer beating the highly-anticipated Barbie will already be a big win for Nolan, but being able to achieve the box office crown over his former studio will demonstrate the consequences of betting against the director.
Barbie & Oppenheimer’s Competition Will Continue At The Oscars
Barbie and Oppenheimer’s battle will come out in full force at the box office on the weekend of July 21, 2023, but it won’t end until the following year. Given Barbie and Oppenheimer both have award-winning and nominated actors, huge budgets from big studios, critically acclaimed writing teams, and two of the biggest directors in Hollywood behind them, they’ll be major front-runners at the 2024 Oscars. The 2024 Academy Awards could potentially see Barbie’s Margot Robbie up against Oppenheimer’s Emily Blunt for Best Actress and Gerwig against Nolan for Best Director, among other creative awards. The box office battle may be the start, but the Barbie vs. Oppenheimer winner won’t be decided until the Oscars.
