March 2023’s Box Office Exposes A Massive Franchise Change (What It Means)

Attachment 64330

The box office stats for March 2023 indicate a significant change in the industry and audience interest with the remarkable successes of newly released franchise films. February 2023 recorded box office victories with the horror-comedy Cocaine Bear, octogenarian-starring comedy 80 for Brady, and M. Night Shyamalan thriller Knock at the Cabin, although the month was also marked by the disappointing performance of the MCU’s Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, which hinted at possible “superhero fatigue.” March 2023 then saw an even bigger success at the box office, with the month’s shocking statistics and varying performances of several huge franchise films indicating substantial evolutions in the industry’s future.

March 2023’s biggest new theatrical releases included five franchise installments: Creed III, the ninth Rocky film; Scream 6, the latest Ghostface sequel; Shazam! Fury of the Gods, one of DC’s last pre-James Gunn entries; John Wick: Chapter 4, the Keanu Reeves action follow-up; and Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, Paramount’s role-playing game adaptation. Except for Shazam 2, each franchise opening was massive, recording some of the best box office stats of 2023 so far and a widespread improvement from The Batman-dominated March 2022. Assessing March 2023’s franchise film openings reveal clear changes to what types of movies fill theaters and how long-running franchises can still succeed, with such statistics also helping to predict upcoming box office performances.

March 2023 Recorded Three Franchise-Best Box Office Openings

Attachment 64331

The impressive nature of March 2023’s box office is highlighted by the fact that three films premiered to franchise-best openings. The PG-13 Creed 3 earned $58.7 at the domestic box office over its opening weekend, which wasn’t only far above its projections of $36-40 million, but also beat the debuts of all eight previous Rocky movies. The previous opening weekend record-holder was Creed 2 with a $35.5 million domestic haul, so Creed 3 is far and away the best opening of the Rocky franchise (via Variety). What makes the film’s box office debut even more impressive is the fact that Creed 3 was the first installment in the Rocky franchise without Sylvester Stallone as Rocky Balboa.

Creed’s massive opening was quickly followed by the franchise-best box office debut of Scream 6, which similarly blew past installments out of the water. Scream 6 – the first installment of the franchise without Neve Campbell as Sidney Prescott – opened to an exciting $44.5 million at the domestic box office, which is substantial given its R rating and premiere window. The other box office openings in the franchise included Scream 3’s $34.7 million in 2000, Scream 2’s $32.9 million in 1997, Scream (2022)’s $30 million, Scream 4’s $18.7 million in 2011, and Scream’s $6.3 million in 1996.

John Wick: Chapter 4 then premiered to the Keanu Reeves action franchise’s biggest box office opening. John Wick: Chapter 4’s box office reported an incredible $73.5 million domestic debut, which also makes it the biggest debut of March 2023. The movie’s $73.5 million opening towers over John Wick’s past installments, including John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum’s $56.8 million, John Wick: Chapter 2’s $30.4 million, and John Wick’s $14.4 million debuts. While Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves’ full box office opening hasn’t concluded, it’s projected to open between $30-40 million, which already eclipses the $33.8 million worldwide lifetime gross of the 2000 Dungeons & Dragons movie (via Variety).

Only 1 Original Movie Is In March 2023’s Box Office Top 5

Attachment 64332

Another surprising detail to emerge from March 2023’s box office statistics is that only one of the top five highest-grossing new movies is an original story. At the time of writing, March 2023’s five top-earning new releases include Creed 3, Scream 6, John Wick: Chapter 4, Shazam! Fury of the Gods, and the Adam Driver-starring dinosaur movie 65, the latter of which isn’t baked into an established franchise. Clearly, franchises continue to reign supreme at the box office, but it is shocking that superhero and sci-fi movies fall at the tail end of the top-five earners.

It’s still discouraging that more original stories weren’t as big at the March 2023 box office, although there were far fewer notable non-franchise releases in theaters than sequels this month. Nevertheless, new releases like Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre, Champions, and A Good Person still earned less in March 2023 than Ant-Man 3, Cocaine Bear, and Avatar: The Way of Water, the latter of which held a spot in the box office top 10 for 16 weekends after its December 2022 premiere. With April 2023’s biggest theatrical releases being The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Evil Dead Rise, and Renfield, there’s still potential for non-franchise films like Air and The Pope’s Exorcist to earn places in the top five.

March 2023 Confirms Superhero Movies Are No Longer Certain Box Office Bets

Attachment 64333

The disappointing performance of Ant-Man 3 at the box office in February 2023 already indicated that superhero movies were potentially losing steam with audiences. After premiering to mixed reviews, the MCU film had a strong debut before recording the biggest second-weekend drop in the franchise’s history and holding the Ant-Man series’ worst box office total. March 2023 followed suit with the month’s only superhero franchise opening, as DC’s Shazam! Fury of the Gods received mixed reviews and opened to a relatively meager $30.1 million, which is far below the 2019 Shazam movie’s $53.5 million opening.

Only two major superhero movies have premiered in 2023, and both have flopped relative to their box office expectations. During the pandemic, superhero movies were one of the few genres reliably making money at the struggling box office, yet the recovering industry indicates this is no longer the case. Superhero movies are facing competition from outlandish R-rated horror movies like Cocaine Bear or failing to hold onto the top box office spot in their sophomore weekends, meaning studios can’t rely on this genre as tentpoles or primary sources of their total box office revenue. While May 2023’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 is expected to be a success, March 2023’s superhero debut signals a larger problem for superhero-heavy studios.

Two R-Rated Franchise Sequels Now Hold Top Spots At The 2023 Box Office

Attachment 64334

March 2023’s box office is also surprising for the success of R-rated movies, which inherently alienate a massive audience pool. John Wick: Chapter 4 and Scream 6 both hold top three spots at the March 2023 box office, falling behind only the PG-13 Creed III. In February 2023, Knock at the Cabin was the only R-rated movie among the top five earners, as Cocaine Bear was edged out by Puss in Boots: The Last Wish. Similarly, January 2023’s only R-rated movie in the top five was Gerard Butler’s Plane. March 2023 having multiple R-rated films in the top five signals that movies targeting older audiences can still succeed just as well as or better than more inclusive PG-13 movies.

Franchises Can Still Succeed Without Their Main Characters

Attachment 64335

Two of the biggest movies of March 2023 were Creed 3 and Scream 6, both of which were the first installments in their long-running respective franchises without the main character. Creed 3 was the first of the franchise without Rocky Balboa, while Scream 6 was the first without Sidney Prescott. While this may have signaled trouble for both films’ financial success, they ultimately premiered to the best box office performances of both franchises, indicating massive film series can still continue without the presence of their lead characters. With the John Wick franchise already setting up spinoffs without the title character, Creed 3 and Scream 6 are encouraging for such movies’ box office success.

March 2023’s Box Office Success Means April Will Be Huge

Attachment 64336

The massive success of March 2023’s new releases at the box office indicates that April 2023’s performance will be even better, as it marks the premieres of several more highly-anticipated franchise movies. Since Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves premieres on March 31, the bulk of its box office earnings will be in April, thus increasing the month’s total substantially. However, it’s the release of The Super Mario Bros. Movie on April 5 that is expected to be huge for April 2023, as it’s also predicted to be one of the highest-grossing movies of the entire year.

Since R-rated franchise movies like John Wick: Chapter 4 and Scream 6 did extraordinarily well in March 2023, the PG-rated Super Mario Bros. Movie is apt to greatly eclipse their earnings as it appeals to families. April 2023 also marks the premiere of the Nicolas Cage-starring horror-comedy Renfield, an adaptation of Dracula based on the vampire’s loyal henchman, and Evil Dead Rise, the fifth film in the Evil Dead franchise. Given the success of March 2023’s R-rated franchise movies, Renfield and Evil Dead Rise are expected to also see huge box office earnings in April 2023.