'Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom' Is The Summer's Most Important Movie

Today is April 6, which means we are two months out from the overseas debut (in France and elsewhere) of Universal/Comcast Corp.’s Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom. The J.A. Bayona-directed dino sequel will have a slow worldwide roll-out, culminating in a domestic debut on June 22, which will give it plenty of time between the likes of Avengers: Infinity War and Solo. While it stands to reason that the $180 million-ish (educated guess) Jurassic World flick won’t necessarily match the $652m domestic/$1.671 billion worldwide gross of the previous installment, it is all-but sure to be one of the summer’s very biggest hits.

And I hope that’s the case. Looking at the summer slate, it’s arguably the only non-Disney flick that has a shot at playing in the upper-tier deck. Yes, Deadpool 2 may again flirt with $750 million, although if Disney buys Fox that’s still a win for Disney. Paramount/Viacom Inc.’s Mission: Impossible Fallout will try to get to $700m worldwide on the third try. But unless something breaks super-huge (Skyscraper, for example), the summer is essentially going to be dominated by Disney flicks like Avengers: Infinity War, Solo: A Star Wars Story, The Incredibles 2, Ant-Man and the Wasp and, uh, Christopher Robin*.

After a first quarter where Disney earned 29% of the total domestic box office (thanks to Black Panther, The Last Jedi, A Wrinkle in Time and Coco), they may run the tables with the summer season as well. That’s not to say Hotel Transylvania 3 or Ocean’s 8 won’t be relative hits, or that The Equalizer 2 or Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again won’t make a few bucks (the first Mamma Mia earned $609 million worldwide ten years ago). But when you’re dealing with the biggest of the big, it’s Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, maybe Fox’s Deadpool 2 and then the Disney slate.

Universal is in no peril in terms of how much individual movies earn compared to how much they cost (and WB slotted their big movies pre/post-summer this year). But in terms of overall market share, Disney may absolutely dominate this season. Heck, it may be in their interest to have Fallen Kingdom take the summer crown for the sake of avoiding charges that the Disney/Fox merger would be a glorified monopoly. Does Disney benefit if Deadpool 2 is the first or second-biggest “not Disney” movie of the summer? Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom is the summer’s most important release for the industry as a whole, even Disney.

Even with a lackluster first trailer (and an improved second trailer) and the lack of a killer “The park is open!” hook, the odds are in Jurassic World’s favor. If it holds enough of its predecessor’s audience, Infinity War plays like a conventional MCU summer kick-off flick and nothing else goes gonzo-bananas (c’mon, Teen Titans GO to the Movies!), it could win the worldwide summer crown. If it drops comparatively to Fate of the Furious ($226 million domestic/$1.236 billion worldwide) from Furious 7 ($353m/$1.516b), we’re still looking at a $417m domestic gross and a $1.362b worldwide total. That may be the a best-case-scenario.

By the way, the same math applies to The Lost World ($229 million/$618m) and Jurassic Park ($357m/$914m), a comparison which gives Fallen Kingdom a $418m domestic and $1.1129 billion global cume. As much as the Internet might like to dissect why Jurassic World was “problematic” or argue that folks only saw it in theaters due to nostalgia, the film debuted with decent-enough reviews and worked as an IMAX-friendly popcorn entertainment. Nostalgia aside, Jurassic World legged it from a record-breaking $208m debut to a $652m domestic total. That’s a 3.12x multiplier (leggier than The Avengers) despite brutal competition from Inside Out, Minions and Ant-Man.

It may have suffered “blockbuster backlash,” to the point where Colin Trevorrow’s career may have been injured by directing a well-reviewed/well-received blockbuster mega-hit (Peter Jackson can relate), but audiences liked what they saw that summer and told their friends who told their friends and took their kids. I just rewatched it this week, and it remains a well-written (the second act muddles Bryce-Dallas Howard’s arc, but the dialogue pops and the characters are quirky) and relatively well-paced big-screen actioner that looked glorious on a huge screen. It's an enjoyable movie with a smart self-commentary, and it looks even better when compared to Independence Day: Resurgence or Terminator Genisys.

Besides, even if you didn’t care for Jurassic World and especially if you didn’t care for how it was directed, this one is being helmed by the man who directed The Orphanage, The Impossible and the terrific A Monster Calls. The very idea of a J.A. Bayona-helmed Jurassic movie should be exciting no matter what you thought of the last one. Contrary to online chitter-chatter, most paying consumers thought that last one was just fine. Whether they actually crave a sequel is a different question, but for the sake of studios that aren’t Walt Disney (or Fox, should that come to pass), we should hope they do.

* I will absolutely be giving side eye to Christopher Robin between now and August, in the hopes that it makes me look stupid when it pulls a Pete's Dragon and makes me weep like a newborn for the duration of its running time.