Jordan Peele's 'Us' Looking at a $50M+ Opening Weekend

March rolls on with yet another highly anticipated film arriving in theaters this weekend. Jordan Peele's Us serves as the writer/director's follow-up to 2017's smash hit Get Out and it is looking to dethrone Captain Marvel and secure the weekend's top spot at the box office.

Arriving in over 3,700 theaters this weekend, Us enters the weekend hot off a strong debut at the SXSW Film Festival, which has led to a Metacritic score that currently stands at 80. The film, which stars Lupita Nyong'o and Winston Duke, is Peele's follow up to 2017's Get Out, which debuted with over $33 million and went on to gross over $176 million at the domestic box office. Get Out also received an "A-" CinemaScore from opening day audiences and was such a hit with crowds it dipped just -15% in its second weekend. Building off that film's success, Us will benefit from not only a strong critical response, but will debut in nearly one thousand more theaters than Get Out.

Industry tracking has Us debuting anywhere from $45-50 million, which is where Mojo's expectations were earlier in the week, but have since shifted a little higher. A look at IMDb page view performance leading up to release shows Us pacing well ahead of Get Out over the two weeks leading up to release and just a bit behind last April's release of A Quiet Place ($50m opening). Online ticket retailer Fandango.com reports similar findings, noting the film is currently outpacing both Get Out and A Quiet Place in ticket pre-sales and is seeing the best horror thriller pre-sales on Fandango since last year's Halloween ($76.2m opening). All told, we're anticipating a $50+ million debut, though don't be surprised to see it push higher, perhaps even over $60 million.

Internationally, Us will open day-and-date with North America in 48 international markets including France, Brazil, Germany, Spain and the U.K & Ireland, with additional markets rolling out through the spring.

Disney and Marvel's Captain Marvel will slide into second place as it enters its third week in release. This weekend we're looking for the film to drop around -45% for a $37 million three-day and a domestic cume around $323 million by the end of day Sunday. In terms of superhero movies this would make it the 22nd highest grossing film on that list while becoming the tenth highest grossing release in the Marvel Cinematic Universe.

Paramount's Wonder Park should land in third, dipping around -40% for a $9.5 million three-day and a domestic cume at or above $30 million by the end of the weekend.

Lionsgate's release of CBS Films's Five Feet Apart outperformed expectations in its debut last weekend and we're expecting a satisfying hold this weekend. Right now we're anticipating a drop around -42% and a three-day in the area of $7.65 million resulting in a domestic cume right around $25 million by Sunday evening.

Universal and DreamWorks Animation's How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World should round out the top five, coming in right around $6 million for a domestic cume right around $145 million.

Elsewhere, A24 will go nationwide with Gloria Bell this weekend, expanding into 654 theaters (+615), and Sony is re-releasing Cruel Intentions for its 20th Anniversary into 708 locations.

In limited release, Bleecker will release Hotel Mumbai in four locations and Sony Classics will debut Sunset in three theaters.

This weekend's forecast is directly below.

1. Us (3,741 theaters) - $51.0 M
2. Captain Marvel (4,278 theaters) - $37.2 M
3. Wonder Park (3,838 theaters) - $9.5 M
4. Five Feet Apart (2,866 theaters) - $7.6 M
5. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (3,346 theaters) - $6.0 M
6. Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral (2,187 theaters) - $4.6 M
7. No Manches Frida 2 (472 theaters) - $2.2 M
8. Captive State (2,549 theaters) - $1.5 M
9. The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part (1,389 theaters) - $1.2 M
10. Alita: Battle Angel (1,439 theaters) - $1.1 M

Let's hope Peele's Twilight Zone reboot that hits Netflix in a couple weeks is like Black Mirror ;-)