Eyes Turn to 'Captain Marvel' to Give the 2019 Box Office a Boost

You can almost hear a collective sigh of relief mixed with anticipation as this weekend's release of Disney and Marvel's Captain Marvel should deliver a much-needed jolt to the domestic box office, which is down 27% compared to last year. In fact, while Captain Marvel will deliver the first $100+ million debut of 2019 the film will most likely outperform all previous weekends so far this year all on its own, needing $139 million to do so.

Captain Marvel is the latest film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and the first to center on a female superhero with Brie Larson starring in the title role. The film will launch in a March record, 4,310 theaters — 3,000+ 3D locations, 400+ IMAX screens, 750+ Premium Large Format screens and 250 D-Box/4D locations — with previews beginning at 6PM on Thursday night. Disney is anticipating a debut around $125+ million, though tracking has been pushing higher all week and we're expecting something a bit higher as well.

Comps begin with previous March releases including Disney's Beauty and the Beast ($174.75m opening), Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice ($166m opening) and The Hunger Games ($152.5m opening), all of which suggest a very real likelihood Captain Marvel tops $150 million this weekend. Adding fuel to the "must see" fire is fan speculation that Captain Marvel's role in the upcoming Avengers: Endgame will be considerable thanks to the end credits scene in Avengers: Infinity War, suggesting audience familiarize themselves with the character before the final chapter in this wave of Avengers films arrives on April 26.

Additionally, Fandango.com reports Captain Marvel is currently the online ticket retailer's biggest advance ticket seller since Avengers: Infinity War at the same point in the sales cycle. Added to that, it is also outpacing Wonder Woman, Aquaman, Solo: A Star Wars Story, Thor: Ragnarok and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 at the same point in the sales cycle.

All that being said, it will be key for Captain Marvel to bring in female audiences the same way Wonder Woman did compared to other films in the DC Extended Universe. Wonder Woman opened to a crowd that was 52% female while other films in the DCEU tend to play to audiences that are, on average, 43% female. The same goes for Marvel films with the likes of Thor: Ragnarok playing to an audience that was 44% female, as did both Guardians of the Galaxy films while Black Panther's opening weekend audience was 45% female, Avengers: Infinity War was 42% and even Ant-Man and the Wasp was 45%.

In the end, we're going with what feels like a relatively safe forecast, anticipating a performance around $155 million. However, as the theater count has escalated we can't help but begin to think a performance that reaches has high as $170 million or perhaps even threatens Beauty and the Beast's $174.7 million, record March opening is a possibility.

Internationally, Captain Marvel will debut day and date in all major markets with the lone exception being Japan, which will open on 3/15. As of publication, the film has already opened in France, Italy, Korea and several others with Russia, Australia, Germany, Brazil launching today and China, United Kingdom, Spain, Mexico and more join North America in a Friday, March 8 launch.

Elsewhere, look for Universal and DreamWorks Animation's How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World to finish in second place this weekend. We anticipate a drop around -44% and a $16-17 million three day, pushing the film's domestic cume over $120 million as it enters its third week in release.

Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral should follow in third, dipping around -58% or so for a $11+ million three-day for a domestic cume right around $45 million by end of day Sunday.

Fox's release of Alita: Battle Angel is looking at a three day right around $4 million as its domestic cume is looking to finish just shy of $80 million by the end of the weekend.

Fifth place is a bit of a toss up right now, though we're giving a slight edge to WB's The LEGO Movie 2, anticipating a weekend performance around $3.6 million as the film continues to make its way to $100 million domestically. However, Universal's Best Picture Oscar winner Green Book could secure the spot if it can hold on better than a -30% dip, which would currently give it a weekend around $3.2 million for a domestic cume topping $80 million after it recently topped $200 million worldwide.

Rounding out the top ten we're going with Neon's expansion of their documentary Apollo 11, which delivered a healthy $1.6 million last weekend from 120 IMAX locations and will expand to 405 total theaters this weekend. Right now we're looking for the film to perform somewhere around $1.3 million for the weekend, which very well could be enough for a top ten finish.

In limited release, A24 will debut Gloria Bell in five theaters; Greenwich will release Ferrante Fever; and Lionsgate will debut Vincent D'Onofrio's western The Kid in 268 theaters.

This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.

1. Captain Marvel (4,310 theaters) - $155.0 M
2. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (4,037 theaters) - $16.8 M
3. Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral (2,442 theaters) - $11.4 M
4. Alita: Battle Angel (2,374 theaters) - $3.9 M
5. The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part (2,930 theaters) - $3.6 M
6. Green Book (2,094 theaters) - $3.2 M
7. Fighting with My Family (2,455 theaters) - $3.0 M
8. Greta (2,417 theaters) - $2.3 M
9. Isn't It Romantic (2,223 theaters) - $2.0 M
10. Apollo 11 (405 theaters) - $1.3 M