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Captain Marvel Projected For Solid $100 Million-Plus Opening Weekend
Captain Marvel is projected to open to a solid $100 million opening weekend with a possibility of surpassing that figure. For comparison, Marvel’s last movie, Ant-Man and the Wasp, earned $75 million in its debut at the domestic box office last summer. While Wonder Woman opened to $103 million back in 2017, which went on to gross a total of $412.5 million domestically. Aside from Black Panther's mammoth opening of $201 million last year, Captain Marvel is looking on track to blast its way into theaters just fine.
The first female-led Marvel solo film stars Brie Larson as Carol Danvers, an Air Force pilot who is recovered by the Kree after mysterious circumstances only to be transformed into the titular Captain Marvel at the cost of her own memories. Danvers crash lands back on in Earth during the 1990s and must re-discover her former self and save the planet from intergalactic conflict with the help of future director of S.H.I.E.L.D., Nick Fury. three years after winning her Oscar for the indie drama Room, Larson is confident and willing to take on the mantle of a $150 million dollar production. From the sounds of it, the final film has nothing to worry about at the box office.
Deadline reports that Captain Marvel's early estimates are tracking along $100 million but could possibly go north of $120 million due to enthusiastic word of mouth. It's also a few weeks away from opening in theaters, so estimates could fluctuate even further. The film's official trailer brought in nearly 109 million views in just its first 24 hours of release. However, these early tracking numbers could fluctuate, up or down, by nearly $20 million. Studio estimates were tracking Universal/Blumhouse's Glass for a much higher $70 million debut weekend before the film ultimately underperformed, only earning $40 million. That said, Captain Marvel is still on pace with DC's first comic-book blockbuster featuring a female lead superhero. The Patty Jenkins directed film starring Gal Gadot ended its run with $821 million worldwide.
Captain Marvel may not have the advantage of a character like Black Panther, whose introduction was brought on by another guaranteed money-maker, Captain America: Civil War. The more comparative character is Wonder Woman, though she appeared in Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice before her solo debut film. However, Captain Marvel fans have been made well aware of the character's presence for some time now. Following the cliffhanger at the end of Avengers: Infinity War, and the news that Captain Marvel would play a crucial role in Avengers: Endgame, Carol Danvers and her superhuman counterpart are likely to drive just as much interest to the theater - at least to see how the events of the upcoming fourth Avengers movie will pan out.
The film also couldn't come at a better time. The disappointing opening of The LEGO Movie 2 has already dropped the box office from the same quarter last year. Not a single movie has debuted above $50 million since the new year. That's likely to not be broken until the release of Captain Marvel. However, following that, highly anticipated releases like Jordan Peele's Us and DC's comedic superhero turn, Shazam!, as well as Avengers: Endgame, are likely to drive those box office numbers up considerably.
