Box Office Prediction: Wonder Woman vs. The Mummy

Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.
For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales‘ opening weekend, and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our picks matched up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of June 9 – 11, 2017.

This weekend, The Mummy opens in 4,034 locations and It Comes At Night plays in 2,533 theaters.

#1 – WONDER WOMAN

Look for last week’s champ, Wonder Woman (read our review), to finish in the top spot again during its second weekend. The latest installment in the DC Extended Universe exceeded most expectations by breaking box office records in its opening frame, grossing more than $100 million in its first three days. The film has been the recipient of positive word-of-mouth from critics and fans, which only adds to its commercial appeal. After a May that was largely in the doldrums, Wonder Woman gave the summer movie season the shot in the arm it needed and rejuvenated the marketplace. With the reception so enthusiastic and nothing really challenging it (more on this in a second), Wonder Woman has a clear road to a repeat and will continue to have a fruitful run.

#2 – THE MUMMY

Our choice for second is The Mummy (read our review), which is being positioned as the first film in Universal’s Dark Universe franchise that aims to reboot their classic monster characters. Headlined by Tom Cruise, The Mummy looked to have some star power to help it find traction with casual moviegoers, but the buildup to its release has been one disappointment after another. The reviews have been widely negative, and the film looks to be yet another summer offering that will disappoint. Given how Wonder Woman has performed, that is clearly going to be the genre picture of choice for many audience members, as The Mummy is arriving in theaters with minimal fan fare. Projections have only gone down over the past few weeks, and they’re now at just $32 million for the first weekend. That’s clearly not what the studio wants, and they’ll have to hope The Mummy finds a following overseas to turn a profit.

#3 – CAPTAIN UNDERPANTS

Coming in third should be Captain Underpants (read our review), which came in second last week with $23.8 million. The latest animated film from Fox obviously couldn’t hold a candle to the live-action superhero film of the moment, but it was able to do well for itself, appealing to families with youngsters. There’s still one more week until Cars 3 opens, so this particular demographic continues to have limited options. For at least one more week, the mischievous George and Harold will stick around to make children laugh.

#4 – IT COMES AT NIGHT

Our pick for fourth place is It Comes At Night, a new horror film starring Joel Edgerton. It is the newest release from independent studio A24, home of moderate successes like Moonlight ($27.8 million) and Ex Machina ($25.4 million). They previously came out with a horror title in the form of The Witch, which grossed $25.1 million over the course of its run. Obviously, It Comes At Night isn’t going to be a crossover smash, but the performances of A24’s earlier productions indicates they have a niche and know it well. With their latest earning positive reviews from critics, it should be able to find an audience and do well. Tracking indicates $11 million in the first three days.

#5 – PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MEN TELL NO TALES

Rounding out the top five should be Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (read our review). The latest installment in Disney’s franchise earned $22 million last week, taking a big hit after its opening weekend. Since the demand for more adventures with Jack Sparrow doesn’t seem to be there, this fifth entry will continue to slide down the charts.

LAST WEEK’S RECAP

Our Picks:

Wonder Woman
Captain Underpants
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Baywatch
Actuals:

Wonder Woman
Captain Underpants
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Baywatch

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