Box Office: 'The Grudge' Looks to Scare Up Some Coin to Kick Off the New Year

It's the beginning of a the new year so you know what that means, plenty of holiday holdovers and a new horror film. This year's horror hopeful is Sony's remake of a remake in The Grudge, but it has plenty of competition as Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is looking at yet another weekend in the top spot not to mention films further down the line including Lionsgate's spectacular holdover Knives Out, which led all wide release holdovers last weekend in terms of holds, improving +52% compared to the week prior, and it's adding theaters this weekend.

At the top, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker will easily remain the weekend's #1 film for a third weekend in a row, even if it dips another -60% compared to last weekend. We don't imagine that happening and are currently expecting a dip around -52% for a $34.7 million three-day, pushing the film over $450 million as it enters its third week in release. The film already became the sixth fastest film to top $400 million and should our forecast hold, look for it to top $450 million a few days sooner than Rogue One did back in 2016, making it the eighth fastest film to hit that mark.

In a repeat of last weekend, Sony's Jumanji: The Next Level will finish in second, pulling in another $19-20 million as it tops $230 million domestically and behind it is yet another Sony title, Little Women.

Sony's Little Women had a strong opening last weekend after debuting on Christmas Day and it has continued that performance over the holiday week. This weekend we're currently projecting a -28% drop and a $12 million three-day, but wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see it hold even better. Based on our forecast we're expecting the film to near $60 million by the end of the weekend.

Disney's Frozen II should finish in in fourth with nearly $11 million for the weekend as it joins Rise of Skywalker, topping $450 million domestically. The performance will be enough to make the film the fourth largest animated title of all-time, topping Shrek 2 ($441.2m).

Rounding out the top five is where we expect to find Sony's The Grudge, which will debut in 2,642 theaters this weekend, kicking off its release this evening with previews in 2,393 locations at 7PM. Whether you consider it a remake of Takashi Shimizu's 2002 original or the 2004 remake starring Sarah Michelle Gellar, which Shimizu also directed, 2020's edition is directed by Nicolas Pesce and takes the MPAA rating from the first remake's PG-13 rating to R and our expectations are lining up with the studio's anticipated $9 million start.

A look at IMDb page view performance over the two weeks leading up to release shows the film trailing recent January horror releases The Boy ($10.8m), The Woman in Black 2 ($15m) and Devil's Due ($8.3m), which has made forecasting this weekend's performance a bit more difficult, but considering the lackluster turnout for Doctor Sleep back in early November and Black Christmas last month, there should be enough of a horror appetite for this film to generate at least $9 million, especially given there is some brand familiarity.

This weekend's forecast is directly below.

1. Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker (4,406 theaters) - $34.7 M
2. Jumanji: The Next Level (4,134 theaters) - $19.1 M
3. Little Women (3,308 theaters) - $12.1 M
4. Frozen II (3,175 theaters) - $11.0 M
5. The Grudge (2,642 theaters) - $9.0 M
6. Spies in Disguise (3,502 theaters) - $8.5 M
7. Knives Out (2,142 theaters) - $7.1 M
8. Uncut Gems (2,686 theaters) - $5.8 M
9. Bombshell (1,721 theaters) - $3.0 M
10. Cats (2,902 theaters) - $2.5 M