Box Office: '1917' Ready to Follow Golden Globe Wins with Weekend #1

This weekend sees a couple new wide releases in Fox's PG-13 thriller Underwater and Paramount's R-rated comedy Like a Boss, but most of the attention will be on Universal's 1917, which looks to follow-up its Golden Globe wins this past Sunday with a #1 finish as it expands nationwide this weekend. Also expanding is WB's well-reviewed drama Just Mercy as it too kicked off its release with a limited run in December and now goes nationwide.

After Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker sat atop the weekend box office for three straight weeks it's time for a new #1 and this weekend it appears Universal's 1917 will take those honors with ease as the recent Golden Globe winner for Best Director (Sam Mendes) and Best Picture - Drama expands from the 11 locations it has played in for just over two weeks and will now go nationwide into over 3,400 theaters. The studio is anticipating a performance around $20 million, but tracking as of last week had a range of anywhere from $21-25 million and that was before the film took home top honors at the Globes.

As Mendes said while accepting the Golden Globe for the film's win for Best Picture - Drama, "This is a huge thing for this movie." Huge indeed. The win has had a notable impact on the film's IMDb page view performance, which was already impressive leading up to the film's win. 1917 is outpacing the likes of Unbroken ($30.2m opening) and Fury ($23.7m opening) and is competitive when compared to Lone Survivor ($37.8m opening) when looking at the page views over the two weeks leading up to wide release. That said, the momentum this film is enjoying only bolsters its weekend prospects along with a 90% critical rating and a 95% audience rating on RottenTomatoes as well as a 8.6/10 user rating on IMDb. All told, we're anticipating a $35+ million performance and won't be the least shocked to see it go even higher.

In second place we expect to find something of an interesting tug of war between Sony's Jumanji: The Next Level and Disney's Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker. At this time we're giving a slight edge to Skywalker, looking at a $17.3 million weekend compared to a $16.7 million weekend for Jumanji, but those positions could obviously flip once Sunday comes around. Should our forecast hold we're expecting Jumanji to finish just shy of $260 million by the end of the weekend while Skywalker tops $480 million.

In fourth we expect to find the first of the weekend's brand new wide releases in Paramount's R-rated comedy Like a Boss starring Tiffany Haddish, Rose Byrne and Salma Hayek. The film will debut in 3,078 locations and while reviews haven't been positive -- 26% on RottenTomatoes -- we're expecting this one to hold its own this weekend. The studio is anticipating a debut in the low double digit millions, which more-or-less lines up with tracking from last week. We've been looking at comps such as What Men Want, Fist Fight and Haddish's 2019 comedy Nobody's Fool and Like a Boss is pacing very similarly to all three over the two weeks leading up to release when looking at IMDb page view performance. The only thing that has us holding back from forecasting a $15+ million performance are the reviews, as audiences could shy away over Saturday and Sunday of word of mouth follows the critical lead. All told, we are expecting a performance around $13+ million for the $29 million production.

Rounding out the top five we have Sony's Little Women, dipping around -26.5% this weekend for a $10 million three-day. Should that forecast hold we're looking at a domestic cume topping $75 million by the end of the weekend. The question is, can not only Little Women hold on that well, but might WB's nationwide expansion of Just Mercy top it?

While WB hasn't replied with expectations for Just Mercy's nationwide expansion this weekend, tracking as of last week was for a performance anywhere from $10-12 million as the film expands into over 2,300 theaters. A look at IMDb page view performance for the film shows it pacing favorably when placed side-by-side with last November's release of Harriet, which opened with $11.6 million. Given that film wasn't a platform release we're going to lower our expectations slightly, looking for a $9.5 million three-day performance, but given the film's impressive 82% rating on RottenTomatoes, "A+" CinemaScore from limited audiences and 99% audience score at RottenTomatoes this could very easily hit double digits and finish in the weekend top five.

Further down the list we have Fox's underwater thriller Underwater starring Kristen Stewart and debuting in over 2,791 locations with the studio looking for a potential debut nearing double digits. We, however, are having a hard time finding any reason to expect a performance that high. A look at IMDb page views shows the film pacing behind previous January releases such as The Boy ($10.7m opening) and The Forest ($12.7m opening) as well as the 2017 March release Life ($12.5m opening). The best comp we've found is the 2017 remake of Flatliners, which opened with $6.5 million from 2,552 locations. Underwater is outpacing that film over the two weeks leading up to release and considering competition from Sony's holdover The Grudge and the negative reviews so far, we're going out with a forecast around $5-6 million.

This weekend's forecast is directly below.

1. 1917 (3,434 theaters) - $32.0 M
2. Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker (4,279 theaters) - $17.3 M
3. Jumanji: The Next Level (3,904 theaters) - $16.7 M
4. Like a Boss (3,078 theaters) - $13.0 M
5. Little Women (3,216 theaters) - $10.0 M
6. Just Mercy (2,375 theaters) - $9.5 M
7. Frozen II (2,655 theaters) - $7.7 M
8. Knives Out (2,060 theaters) - $6.4 M
9. Underwater (2,791 theaters) - $6.0 M
10. Spies in Disguise (2,671 theaters) - $5.2 M