'Bohemian Rhapsody', 'Nutcracker' and 'Nobody's Fool' Kick Off November 2018

FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Fox's Bohemian Rhapsody delivered an excellent $3.9 million from Thursday night previews last night, which began at 7PM in ~3,260 locations. The performance is just a bit shy of the $4.55 million A Star is Born brought in from previews last month, though it should be noted A Star is Born's total included $1.35 million from Tuesday and Wednesday special event screenings.

Paramount's Nobody's Fool brought in $600,000 from Thursday night previews in ~2,600 locations with screenings beginning at 7PM. This is a bit shy of Acrimony's $1 million preview gross.

We'll take a closer look at things tomorrow morning once Friday estimates come in. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.

WEEKEND PREVIEW: On the heels of a monster October, which saw the month deliver record calendar grosses totaling over $800 million domestically for the first time ever, November 2018 hopes to follow suit. The month's first crop of new wide releases include Fox's Bohemian Rhapsody and The Nutcracker and the Four Realms, Disney's first new release in just under three months. Additionally, Paramount will debut Tyler Perry's new comedy Nobody's Fool starring Tiffany Haddish while Amazon Studios expands the reach of both Suspiria and Beautiful Boy.

Originally set to star Sacha Baron Cohen as Freddie Mercury, the first iteration of Bohemian Rhapsody, telling the story of the iconic rock band Queen, got underway in 2010. After five years of ups and downs, production finally got underway in 2015 with director Bryan Singer and star Rami Malek. While that is the version audiences will be seeing in theaters, beginning with preview screenings tonight, The Hollywood Reporter has discussed the trials and tribulations of the reportedly troubled production, though it seems nothing will stop this film from topping the weekend chart with what Fox expects to be around a $35 million debut from 4,000 locations.

Early reviews of the film have praised Malek's performance while suggesting a more adult-targeted, R-rated feature may have better suited the material. As it is, the PG-13 rating should open up the potential audience and we're seeing strong signals when looking at IMDb page view performance against films such as the recently released A Star is Born ($42.9m opening), Captain Phillips ($25.7m opening), Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again ($34.9m opening) and Dunkirk ($50.5m opening). Even online ticket retailer Fandango.com reports Bohemian Rhapsody is outpacing A Star is Born and Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again at the same point in the company's sale cycle. Mojo modeling suggests the film could top $45 million this weekend if not higher, but we're remaining a bit more conservative, forecasting a debut around $38 million.

Internationally, Bohemian Rhapsody has already generated nearly $16 million in the UK and will add an additional 64 markets this weekend including Australia, Brazil, France, Germany, Mexico, Russia, South Korea and Spain.

Looking at a second place finish is The Nutcracker and the Four Realms, which serves as Disney's first film since the early August release of Christopher Robin. Debuting in 3,766 theaters, studio expectations are for an opening in the low-to-mid $20 millions, which is right around where our analysis leads us.

IMDb page view comps have the film performing almost right on par with Christopher Robin, which opened with $24.6 million back in early August. However, the film is pacing behind the likes of The BFG ($18.8m opening) and Alice Through the Looking Glass ($26.8m opening) over the course of the two weeks leading up to release. As much as we may be inclined to believe Disney can do no wrong and expect a performance over $25 million for The Nutcracker, these comps along with the fact Disney has only just lifted the review embargo — which has so far earned a disappointing score of 38 on Metacritic — have us anticipating an opening closer to $20 million.

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms opens day-and-date with the US in about 72% of the international marketplace, including Spain, Italy, Germany, UK, Mexico, Brazil, China and India with releases extending throughout the month of November, ending with South Korea and Russia in early December.

Universal's Halloween cranked out over $5 million on Halloween, pushing its monster domestic total over $137 million. This weekend, the $10 million production should see a dip around 51% for a three-day right around $15 million and a domestic cume topping $155 million. As a result it will become the fourth largest R-rated horror film of all-time.

We're currently expecting Paramount's release of Tyler Perry's Nobody's Fool to land in fourth place with around $14 million from 2,468 locations, but it could ultimately challenge Halloween for that third position. Studio expectations are for a performance in the mid-to-high teens, performing at or near previous R-rated Perry-produced features such as Acrimony ($17.1m opening) and For Colored Girls ($19.5m opening). Right now the comps we're looking at, along with current weekend modeling, point toward a performance anywhere from $14-17 million, and while our $14+ million forecast feels conservative based on that range, we won't be at all surprised to see it reach higher.

WB's A Star is Born will certainly lose a little audience to the release of Bohemian Rhapsody, but we aren't expecting a massive dip. Right now we're anticipating a drop around 33% and a three-day weekend topping $9 million, for a domestic cume at or near $163 million by the end of the weekend.

As of press time Amazon was looking to expand Suspiria into 250-300 locations this weekend and Beautiful Boy into approximately 500 theaters. Once we have official counts they will be added to our theater counts page.

In limited release, Neon will debut Bodied in 14 theaters; Focus will be releasing Boy Erased into five locations; and Aviron is releasing A Private War in four theaters.

This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.

1. Bohemian Rhapsody (4,000 theaters) - $38.0 M
2. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (3,766 theaters) - $20.0 M
3. Halloween - $15.4 M
4. Nobody's Fool (2,468 theaters) - $14.4 M
5. A Star is Born (3,431 theaters) - $9.4 M
6. Venom (3,067 theaters) - $5.4 M
7. Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween (2,828 theaters) - $3.7 M
8. Hunter Killer (2,720 theaters) - $3.1 M
9. Smallfoot (2,002 theaters) - $3.0 M
10. The Hate U Give (1,507 theaters) - $2.7 M