4 Attachment(s)
The Avatar Sequels Will Blow Marvel Out of The Water
The $1 billion dollar investment into four sequels to Avatar is a frequent target of snark from many film fans, but the fact of the matter is the Avatar franchise is going to be a box office behemoth, eclipsing other modern franchises like Star Wars and Marvel.
The first Avatar movie arrived in theaters in 2009 and wowed audiences with its revolutionary 3D effects and use of CGI and motion capture, especially in IMAX. The movie would go on to become the highest grossing film of all time with a total of $2,787,965,087 at the worldwide box office. It's taken ten years for director James Cameron to produce a sequel, but starting in December 2020, we'll see the first of four sequels, all of which are being produced at the same time to save on costs.
In an age where successful blockbuster franchises seem to have figured out a winning formula, running like well-oiled machines with regular releases, the commitment to not one, two, or three, but four sequels all at once may seem foolhardy, but discounting the potential of this franchise would be ignorant of the true success of the first movie and James Cameron's history in Hollywood.
AVATAR'S BOX OFFICE WAS INSANELY MASSIVE
The extent of the box office success of the first Avatar can't be overstated. It's the biggest movie of all time, and by a margin so large, you'd need to add the box office take of two movies to match it. At over $2.78 billion Avatar is the equivalent of Avengers: Infinity War and Guardians of the Galaxy put together, only it was made for less than half of their combined budgets.
This isn't a case of Avengers: Infinity War, the 4th highest grossing movie of all time, simply coming up a few weekends short. It literally came up an entire $773 million blockbuster movie short of Avatar. Even Star Wars: The Force Awakens, the 3rd highest grossing movie of all time, only beat Avengers: Infinity War by around $20 million. That's still the equivalent of the box office take of a blockbuster success like Suicide Squad lower than Avatar.
It may seem absurd to evaluate a blockbuster's success based on what two movies would need to combine their box office haul to match it, but that just goes to show just how massive Avatar was. Many people are assuming the sequels will see a big drop at the box office from the first, and that might be true, but even if Avatar 2 only does 75% of the first movie's box office, it still beats Avengers: Infinity War and Star Wars: The Force Awakens. In fact, it could see only half the box office success of the first movie and still be in the top 10 all time, beating movies like Black Panther, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, and Star Wars: The Last Jedi.
Box office rankings aside, looking at the four sequels as pure business investments. The traditional rule of movie profits being that a movie needs to double its budget to make a profit, the $1 billion combined budget for the four movies means each needs to only hit $500 million - under 18% of the first movie's haul - in order to turn a profit. On top of that, while the budget on each movie works out to be an average of $250 million, the synergy of running the productions together and shooting back to back means that $250 million will go a lot farther than a typical $250 million movie.
In order to drop far enough from the numbers of the original to not even turn a profit, the sequels would have to be an absolutely abysmal failure, and it would never be wise to anticipate that kind of result from James Cameron.
NEVER DISCOUNT JAMES CAMERON
You may notice that when we compared Avatar's box office to other top earners, we looked at #3 and #4 movies, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, and Avengers: Infinity War, but have yet to mention #2. Well, that 2nd all-time earner spot just happens to also belong to James Cameron for Titanic, a movie he made a decade before Avatar.
Titanic stands out as an anomaly at the top of the box office charts because, unlike all the other movies in the top 10, or the vast majority of even the top 100 grossing movies, it's not an effects-driven sci-fi, action, or fantasy film. It's a period drama, and it's over 3 hours long. Basically, it has no business selling the number of tickets it did. While Titanic's box office is still hundreds of millions less than Avatar, the difference between the box office takes of Titanic and the next highest fil, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, is still 5 times greater than the difference between Force Awakens and the next highest grossing film, Avengers: Infinity War.
Of course, Avatar and Titanic aren't the only movies James Cameron has ever made. Some of the most highly regarded genre films were directed by him, including Terminator, Terminator 2: Judgment Day, Aliens, and True Lies, all of which were groundbreaking, critically lauded, and highly profitable.
Terminator 2: Judgment Day and True Lies are of particular note. T2 was the biggest budget ever at its time, then Cameron turned around and broke that record again with True Lies, his very next movie, which was also the first movie to cost more than $100 million. Cameron broke his own record again with Titanic, which was also the most expensive movie ever made at the time and the first film ever to have a budget over $200 million. Terninator 2 was also the first movie to earn over $300 million outside the US.
James Cameron has broken the record for most expensive movie ever on 3 occasions and directed the highest grossing movie of all time twice - and still holds the top 2 all-time spots. It's safe to say Cameron can be trusted when it comes to handling a movie's budget, satisfying critics, and turning a profit.
AVATAR IS WAY MORE POPULAR THAN YOU THINK
The interesting thing about most discussions surrounding Avatar is that there seems to be a collective cultural amnesia about any movies that happened before The Avengers in 2012. While Marvel certainly revolutionized the industry with the shared universe model and the return of Star Wars likewise raised the bar on what it means to be a modern blockbuster, they're hardly the first movies to take risks, set records, or change the game. It should also be of note that James Cameron hasn't released any movies within this recent bubble.
It's also easy to forget the impact of the international box office. Both Titanic and Avatar were massive successes outside the US, so focusing on American audiences and their expectations provides an incomplete picture of the demand for these movies. The international box office has become a much more significant factor in recent years, and many blockbusters have tried to court foreign audiences, but nobody has been able to replicate the kind of success as Cameron has proven he can achieve time and again.
The other factor most of Avatar's critics haven't considered is Disney's acquisition of Fox, which includes the rights to the Avatar franchise. Not only is Disney one of the most powerful marketing machines in the world, sure to supercharge Avatar's sequel fortunes, but Disney already has a loyal Avatar fanbase thanks to the Pandora theme park at Disney World, which has caused the Animal Kingdom park to surpass Epcot as the second most popular location at Disney World Orlando.
It's easy to understand why Avatar may not be top of mind when we're in a constant loop of Marvel, DC, and Star Wars news, but once marketing kicks in for Avatar 2 and audiences get a look at what's sure to be groundbreaking visual effects, there'll be a new franchise in contention, and it'll be clear why James Cameron remains the undisputed box office king.
KEY RELEASE DATES
Avatar 2 (2020) release date: Dec 18, 2020
Avatar 3 (2021) release date: Dec 17, 2021
Avatar 4 (2024) release date: Dec 20, 2024
Avatar 5 (2025) release date: Dec 19, 2025
