Europol Predicts Drop in Online Piracy, Contrary to New Data

Europol's latest organized crime threat assessment predicts that online piracy services will face a drop in demand. This conclusion appears to rely on data that's already five years old and predates the EU streaming boom. Can old statistics accurately reflect today's piracy trends? Not necessarily, as newer data suggest a significant reversal.

pirate-flagEuropol published its latest Serious and Organized Crime Threat Assessment (SOCTA) this week.

The report provides a detailed overview of the threats posed by serious and organized crime in Europe, and includes a section dedicated to digital content piracy.

Europol is no stranger to piracy and online copyright infringement. The EU agency has led and assisted in many enforcement efforts over the years and has been particularly active in dismantling criminal IPTV operations across several member states.

Pirate Streaming Threats

The 100-page SOCTA report touches on a wide array of crime threats but, with less than a full page, the piracy assessment is rather concise. Europol notes that pirated digital content is mostly consumed via mobile and web-based applications, driven by increased online streaming and “over-the-top” services.

The report goes on to mention that online piracy and other types of cybercrime increasingly overlap. This can include ‘theft’ of credentials from legitimate streaming service subscribers, which can then be repackaged and offered to pirates.

“Digital pirates may steal or purchase login credentials from legitimate subscribers — often sourced via phishing scams or data breaches — and then repackage multiple over-the-top libraries into a single, unauthorized service,” Europol writes.

“Piracy Will Drop”

Europol’s overview of the piracy landscape and associated threats doesn’t offer much detail, or highlight any novel or emerging threats. However, it does include a noteworthy piracy prediction, suggesting that a “drop in demand” for pirate services is expected.

Highlighted in the 2025 SOCTA report

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This statement stands out for various reasons, including Europol’s own preface, which suggests that consumers might be more drawn to piracy today due to cost concerns and the increased fragmentation of legal streaming services.

“The current cost-of-living crisis as well as the fragmentation of content across multiple legal streaming platforms prompt consumers to seek more cost-effective and unified packages regardless of their illegality,” Europol notes.

“Yet, due to improved access to legal platforms, and enforcement scrutiny in some Member States, a further drop in users for illicit platforms is anticipated.”

The last sentence is rewritten, blown up, and separately highlighted in the piracy section of the SOCTA report. This leads to the conclusion that criminal piracy networks will be facing a drop in demand.

Where is the Data?

Rightsholders will be delighted to read this forecast, especially since it comes direct from Europol. That said, it would be good to see more data and context on how this conclusion was reached.

Europol didn’t immediately reply to our request for comment but, luckily, the report includes citations. The “drop in users” prediction is tied to a 2023 Europol IP-crime threat assessment, which includes a near identical statement, shown below.

Near identical (2023 report)

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The 2023 report includes another citation, referencing Europol’s Intellectual Property Crime Threat Assessment from the previous year. This indeed mentions that “the overall decline of digital piracy continued” during the COVID pandemic.

Piracy Decline (2022 report)

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This report is still not the original source, as another citation identifies an EUIPO copyright infringement report from 2021 as the basis for the conclusion that piracy is declining. The data this report refers to was collected between 2017 and 2020, which is far from new.

Piracy is Actually Rising?

The citation-chain suggests that the predicted piracy decline, which is prominently highlighted in the 2025 threat assessment, relies on five-year-old data.

Interestingly, the increased fragmentation of content across legal streaming services, which Europol highlighted as a piracy driver, mostly took place after the ‘piracy drop’ data was collected. For example, Disney+ and HBO MAX were still not available in Europe early 2020.

This means that the data supporting Europol’s prediction of a drop in piracy, was collected before a key piracy driver was introduced in the EU. That’s a potential problem; there’s good reason to believe that piracy has increased over the past several years, running counter to Europol’s conclusion.

The 2021 EUIPO report that provides the basis for the reported decline, was followed up by a new EUIPO copyright infringement report in 2023. That report showed – contrary to Europol’s prediction of decline – that online piracy is on the rise again.

Put differently, it appears that Europol’s piracy prediction is not only based on five-year old data, but data that has since been displaced by newer findings indicating that the downwards piracy trend has since been reversed.