South Korea’s Yoon impeached: What happens next?

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol delivers an address to the nation at his official residence in Seoul, South Korea, December 14, 2024. Photo: Reuters
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol was suspended from his duties after Parliament passed a Bill to impeach him, 11 days after his botched attempt to declare martial law sparked massive protests to oust him.

Yoon's future now hangs in the balance as his case proceeds to the Constitutional Court, which has 180 days to decide whether to uphold or overturn his impeachment. In the interim, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo is Acting President.

Twelve lawmakers in Yoon's own party crossed party lines to vote with the 192 opposition members in the 300-strong National Assembly to gain the two-thirds vote required for the Bill to pass. In an earlier impeachment vote on Dec 7, Yoon's People Power Party had stood behind him, defeating the motion.

Loud cheers erupted outside the National Assembly when the result was announced, from a massive crowd of at least 145,000 people, waving light sticks and dancing with joy to the news. Some had travelled to Seoul from as far as the southern cities of Busan and Tongyeong.

Similar rallies were held at other cities across the country such as Daegu, Gwangju and Jeju.

Political scientist Ahn Byong-jin from Kyung Hee University, who was in the crowd, saw the vote as a "successful first step", but the outcome is not yet certain.

The Bill must be approved by at least six justices in the Constitutional Court, but only six of the nine seats are filled, and a unanimous decision looks unlikely.

"Just as how we never imagined we would ever see martial law declared in our country again, we need to be very cautious that unseen variables might just crop up again," Prof Ahn told The Straits Times, noting that Yoon is a "very desperate man who will do anything to push back".

Yoon is said to be relishing the chance to argue the legitimacy of his martial law decree in the Constitutional Court.

In a written address to the nation after passage of the Bill, Yoon said the suspension was only a "temporary pause", and expressed frustration that all his efforts in pushing reforms for the country may have been in vain.

He added that he would never give up, and that he would "continue to do my utmost for the country until the very last moment".

It was his second public address in three days. On Dec 12, he delivered a televised statement defending his martial law declaration on Dec 3 as within "the President's legal authority to protect the country and normalise state affairs in a catastrophic emergency that paralysed state affairs". This was widely seen as his admission of culpability for masterminding the decree, which he was forced to rescind only hours after making it.

Yoon has been named a suspect on insurrection charges. South Korean police, which raided his office on Dec 11 in search of evidence, said on Dec 13 that they were considering filing an arrest warrant for him and searching the presidential residence as well.

Prosecutors have already arrested several senior officials close to Yoon for their connection to the case – former defence minister Kim Yong-hyun, who is alleged to have masterminded the martial law debacle, both the National and Seoul Metropolitan police chiefs, a Defence Counterintelligence Command chief and the head of the Capital Defence Command.

Kyonggi University's professor of political science and law Hahm Sung-deuk foresees that the authorities will want to arrest Yoon "as soon as possible".

"The impeachment has made it easier for either the prosecutors or the police to arrest Mr Yoon, because he is not president any more," said Prof Hahm. "If he is still sitting in office, it will be very difficult to do so, because his security office will block such actions."

The impeachment vote has also thrown South Korea's diplomacy into a flux, as foreign partners will not want to engage with Seoul during the leadership vacuum. This comes as the United States President-elect Donald Trump is due to be inaugurated in January 2025, and against the backdrop of rising threats from North Korea's new-found alliance with Russia.

Han sought to assuage concerns about a leadership vacuum by immediately convening a Cabinet meeting on Dec 14. He told reporters that while his heart was heavy, he pledged to do his best to "stabilise state affairs".

With the impeachment Bill passed, attention has quickly pivoted to the Constitutional Court, where the final decision now rests.

Yoon's impeachment is the third in South Korea's history. Late president Roh Moo-hyun's impeachment in 2004 was overturned by the court after 63 days, while former president Park Geun-hye's impeachment was upheld after 91 days in 2017.

But whether the court can decide as quickly this time around remains to be seen.

While the court's Acting Chief Justice Moon Hyung-bae has promised a "speedy and fair trial", the court currently has only six out of nine seats filled.

South Korea law stipulates that at least six justices must approve an impeachment for it to be upheld. And while not impossible, it is unlikely for all the current six justices to reach a unanimous decision.

Of the current six justices, two were appointed by former president Moon Jae-in and said to be liberal-leaning, while one was appointed by Yoon and seen as conservative-leaning. The other three are considered moderate with conservative leanings.

Kyung Hee University's Prof Ahn believes that the strong public opinion may influence the council's final decision to some degree, but he admits to feeling nervous because one of the justices is known to be "very conservative".

"If they cannot reach six votes to uphold the decision, then the process may drag on," he told ST.

The ruling party and largest opposition Democratic Party have nominated their respective favoured candidates to the council, which is slated to be deliberated by the National Assembly later this month.

Kyonggi University's Prof Hahm told ST that he does not foresee the vacancies to delay the impeachment decision. Pointing out that two of the current six justices are due to retire in April 2025, he says that it is very likely for the decision to be made before that happens.

And while Yoon is said to be preferring to be impeached so that he could argue the legitimacy of his martial law decree in court, he may have neglected to weigh the costs of the legal noose tightening around his neck at the same time, said Prof Hahm.

He added: "Mr Yoon is also a prosecutor-general who put many people into jail but has never been to jail himself. It is one thing to be impeached, but another to be imprisoned. A prison sentence will be very difficult for him to take."

Copyright: The Straits Times/Asia News Network