Robert E Kelly on Donald Trump and Korean peace talks

A LEADING expert on Korea has slammed the idea that Donald Trump is responsible for bringing Kim Jong-un to the negotiating table.

Supporters say Mr Trump was the X-factor that brought the two Korean leaders together on Friday for a historic meeting on the border between the two nations.

But Professor Robert E Kelly said the US President could not claim credit for the breakthrough and argued instead that Mr Trump had agreed to a summit with the North Korean leader in exchange for nothing.

In a Twitter thread, Prof Kelly ridiculed Vice President Mike Pence’s argument that Mr Trump brought Kim to the table without making concessions.

Mr Pence on Friday praised the US President, saying North Korea’s promise to denuclearise showed the strength of Mr Trump’s leadership.

In a statement, Mr Pence said it was also a clear sign the intense pressure of sanctions was working.

However Prof Kelly said there was no evidence that Mr Trump’s “belligerence” had led to the peace agreement.

Prof Kelly also highlighted how the US made concessions, not Kim.

Prof Kelly pointed out North Korea had completed its missile and nuclear program and therefore wanted to talk, and this had nothing to do with the US President.

While acknowledging there had been some, including South Korea’s Foreign Ministry, who credited Mr Trump for bringing the North to the table, Prof Kelly said the world had learned pretty quickly to get on his good side.

Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop is among those praising Mr Trump, telling Fairfax that the President’s unpredictable approach had led to the meeting between Mr Kim and his South Korean counterpart, Moon Jae-in.

‘NOBEL, NOBEL’

Mr Kelly’s comments come as Mr Trump’s supporters called for him to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

During a campaign-style rally in Michigan on Saturday, Mr Trump told supporters his critics used to say he would drag the world into nuclear war.

“Months ago, do you remember what they were saying? ‘He’s going to get us into nuclear war,’ they said,” Mr Trump told supporters in Washington Township, north of Detroit.

“No, strength is going to keep us out of nuclear war, not going to get us in.”

The US leader has been eager to play up his role in achieving a breakthrough with Pyongyang through his “maximum pressure” campaign involving tough rhetoric, stronger sanctions and diplomatic efforts to further isolate the regime.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un reportedly said he would give up his nuclear weapons if the US promised not to invade during the high-level talks with Mr Moon on Friday.

Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop is among those praising Mr Trump, telling Fairfax that the President’s unpredictable approach had led to the meeting between Mr Kim and his South Korean counterpart, Moon Jae-in.

Supporters at the Michigan rally called out “Nobel, Nobel” for Mr Trump’s help in bringing North Korea to the negotiating table.

“That’s very nice, thank you. That’s very nice,” he said.

“I just want to get the job done.”

However Mr Trump said he was prepared to walk away if US demands for North Korea to relinquish its atomic arsenal were not met.

Ms Bishop called on Mr Trump to be given the highest praise if he can broker permanent peace on the Korean peninsula.

However when asked if the US President should be awarded the Noble Peace Prize on ABC Radio this morning, she said there was a long way to go.

“If we were to witness a permanent peace on the Korean Peninsula and a denuclearised Korean Peninsula, that would be an extraordinary outcome and would be deserving of the highest praise,” she said.

FLATTERING TRUMP

Australian National University Southeast Asia Institute director John Blaxland said there was a good reason for flattering Mr Trump.

“There is a strong imperative for foreign leaders to flatter Trump by crediting him with being the catalyst for bringing Kim Jong-un to the negotiating table,” Professor Blaxland said.

“Governments want to avoid Trump’s wrath, his economic sanctions and related threats.”

He also said it was Kim, not the US President, who could claim credit for the talks taking place.

“It is Kim who has repeatedly taken the initiative, testing nukes, firing missiles, calling for a summit, offering to close facilities and cease testing,” Prof Blaxland said.

“These were all calls by Kim Jong-un, not Donald Trump.”

However Prof Blaxland said added that no one side could claim the credit.

“Trump’s apparent credibility as the ‘madman’ leader, prepared to cross the threshold of war to get his way over North Korea, is reinforced by the appointment of the new national security adviser, the unreconstructed and unrepentant advocate of the Iraq invasion of 2003, John Bolton,” he said.

“Moon Jae-in came to office in South Korea on a platform of reconciliation with North Korea and has been working hard to facilitate rapprochement.

“And besides, we have been here before, on the cusp of a breakthrough, on a frequency of about once a decade since the end of the Cold War. Now, of course, North Korea has a stronger bargaining position, being effectively a de facto member of the nuclear weapons club.”

Leonid Petrov, a visiting fellow at the Australian National University College of Asia and the Pacific, said there was one party that hadn’t been acknowledged in all of this.

“The Australian Prime Minister and Foreign Minister praise Trump and acknowledge (Chinese president) Xi’s contribution but forget to thank Moon and Putin for the inter-Korean summit,” he said.

“Without Russia joining the sanctions and South Korea effectively undermining them there would not be any progress in trust-building and peacemaking in Korea.”

TRUMP’S TRAP?

Malcolm Davis, senior analyst in defence strategy and capability at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said while Mr Trump had claimed the credit for bringing the North to the table, he believed he was falling into a potential trap.

“The North Koreans have developed their nuclear and missile capabilities to the point whereby they have a credible nuclear deterrent against the United States,” Dr Davis said.

“They can play Moon’s desire for North-South reconciliation for all they can get in terms of concessions. They’ll promise the world, but give nothing back in return.”

Dr Davis said the Panmunjom Declaration was big on flowery rhetoric but short on substance and specifics, and he believed the North Koreans would string out the process.

“I’d actually say that Kim Jong-un made all this possible because he has an exploitative strategy, and Moon bought into that strategy because it is music to his ears, and Trump, being Trump rushed to claim the credit when in fact he’s potentially walking into a trap in June,” he said.

However Dr Davis did give the US President credit for taking a more robust stance through military pressure and sanctions compared to previous administrations.