Mathematician calculated the deadlines for the outbreak of World War III

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MOSCOW, Mar. 2 - RIA Novosti. A mathematician from the University of Colorado in Boulder, USA, Aaron Clauset analyzed open historical data on armed clashes and calculated the deadlines for the outbreak of World War III. The work of the scientist is published in the journal Science Advances.

The study says that historically periods of prolonged ceasefire are replaced by phases of "great violence" and vice versa.

"Thus, the historical regularities of the periodicity of wars mean that the long peace can be much more fragile than those who have recently made efforts to reveal a mechanism that reduces the likelihood of interstate conflicts," writes the mathematician.

The scientist analyzed the armed clashes that occurred between the states in the period from 1823 to 2003. During this time period, there were 95 major conflicts between different countries. And from 1940 to 2003, there were only five of them.

Clauset also developed a computer program that reproduced the wars of this period and determined their frequency and "severity."

According to the scientist, the probability of another global armed clash is quite high. As noted in the study, it is necessary 100-140 years of conflict-free existence on a global scale so that the current period of a "lasting peace" changes the trend that has developed over the years.

Historical data with a high probability indicate that a major interstate armed clash should occur precisely in this time period, that is, until 2150.

Link: https://ria.ru/science/20180302/1515661494.html