NFL playoffs: Picks, odds for Jaguars vs. Patriots AFC championship game

By now, what doesn't everybody know about the gulf between the Patriots’ postseason history and that of the Jaguars, their AFC championship game opponent? The answer, of course, is, nothing … but it can't be repeated enough.

If the Patriots move on to the eighth Super Bowl of the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era (and their 10th ever), it would be a fully-expected validation of their dominance. If they don’t, it would assure that the magnitude of the Jaguars' achievement can never be diminished.

That gulf is overwhelming, even compared to the one between the Jaguars and the team they buried to get here, the Steelers. Just limiting the Patriots' figures to the 18 years Belichick and Brady have been together while using the Jaguars' entire NFL existence, here’s the tally — Super Bowl wins: Patriots, 5-0. Super Bowl appearances: Patriots, 7-0. AFC title games: Patriots, 12-2 (including the last seven). Quarterback postseason starts: Brady 35, Blake Bortles 2. Coaching postseason games: Belichick 35, Doug Marrone 2.

On the other hand, the last time it was universally believed that the Patriots had no chance to win a playoff game was Super Bowl 36, at the beginning of the dynasty, against the Rams. The last time for the Jaguars was last week, when the Steelers looked past them like few teams in the history of any sport looked past the team in front of them.

That’s not the sole reason the Jaguars ran them off their home field, however, and the Patriots won't take them for granted in any form or fashion. The Jaguars are a physically and mentally tough bunch of players who are not intimidated by anyone. That part of their story will decide this game and determine who moves on to Minneapolis.

NFL playoff picks: Jaguars at Patriots (-9)

• Date, time: Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET
• Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass.
• TV: CBS
• Live streaming: FuboTV (free trial)
• Odds: Patriots -9; total: 48

David Steele: The Patriots are defending champs, but even in light of the speed in which rosters turn over year-to-year, there are some jarring differences in personnel since last season's run.

Yes, Brady, of course, but they’ve had Rob Gronkowski every week this time, where they did not for the playoffs last year. No Julian Edelman, either, with Brandin Cooks added as a target, and the running-back mix is different (again). Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia also has a different blend of players to juggle, too, with no Dont’a Hightower since November.

The Jaguars' defense deserves every accolade it has earned and every boast Jalen Ramsey exudes, and it did after the Steelers win. But the Jaguars also let the Steelers’ weapons break off big plays to climb back into and stay in their game last week, so assuming that whatever they do to slow Gronkowski will work is premature at best.

All of that said, however … the "secret" to beating Brady when he's been beaten has been the pass rush, and handling the Jaguars' front seven will be a mighty task. The Jaguars are second-best in the NFL in total defense, scoring defense, sacks and interceptions, and first in pass completion percentage and passer rating allowed.

A case can be made for the Jaguars to pull this off, if everything goes perfectly.
A better case can be made that the Patriots will never let that happen.

Pick: Patriots 26, Jaguars 19

Vinnie Iyer: The Jaguars are big underdogs, but they are more than capable of giving the Patriots a massive headache. This game is in Foxborough, but it has a similar feel to the 2015 AFC championship game two years ago in Denver.

The Patriots were stifled just enough against a loaded Broncos defense that could smash New England in the mouth by simply lining up elite talent at every position. Von Miller led the domination there. For the Jaguars, Calais Campbell is the main man.

The Jaguars have struggled only against mobile quarterbacks, and outside of Antonio Brown, no wide receiver has had success against shutdown corners Ramsey and A.J. Bouye flanking the ferocious, four-man pass rush.

Jacksonville won't try to outsmart New England — it will simply rely on its talent to be faster and physical in all the matchups. Offensively, it comes to another clean game from Bortles, buoyed by more big-time running from Leonard Fournette.

The Jaguars are constructed in the image of the Tom Coughlin teams that got the better of Brady and Belichick twice in Super Bowls. Bortles is much maligned, but he's better than what Peyton Manning was for that Broncos team, and he's on par with how Eli Manning played for Coughlin's Giants.

It takes immense defensive talent, a nasty rushing attack, fearlessness and an attitude to take down the Patriots at Gillette Stadium. These Jaguars are young and don't know any better to think the moment is too big for them. They'll get in Brady's face, thwart a less explosive overall offense than that of the Steelers and keep shocking everyone on their way to Super Bowl LII.

Pick: Jaguars 23, Patriots 20