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Thread: Oscars 2019 Best Picture Predictions

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    Oscars 2019 Best Picture Predictions


    Oscars season is here, which means it's time to start thinking about which films could be nominated for Best Picture this year. Recently, the Venice, Toronto, and Telluride film festivals all concluded, with studios bringing a number of awards hopefuls to show off. While there is still plenty of time before the race comes to a close, the festivals provide a bit of clarity, as viewers see which films are legitimate contenders, and which ones are just pretenders.

    For a while, last year was one of the more open races in a while, with numerous high-quality films receiving much acclaim and accolades. It remains to be seen how this year's crop stacks up (many of them are unseen as of this writing), but there are a number of likely possibilities that cinephiles will enjoy following as awards season heats up. Here are some we feel could make a big splash.

    A STAR IS BORN



    The darling of the festival circuit so far, Bradley Cooper's directorial debut is apparently so good, it was able to win over even those who were skeptical of its prospects. Debuting to raves in Venice, A Star is Born also screened at Toronto, cementing its status as one to watch this season. Critics feel it's deserving of nominations across the board, including Cooper in both the Best Director and Best Actor categories, as well as Lady Gaga in Best Actress. Warner Bros.' marketing campaign has played up the chemistry between the two leads, hinting at a touching romantic drama powered by a killer soundtrack. By all accounts, this is a remake done right.

    f there's anything going against A Star is Born at the moment, it's that it's never good to be the pre-ordained frontrunner this early on. There's plenty of time for the inevitable backlash to kick in, and some may feel the film is overhyped once it is released to the general public. Still, A Star is Born looks to be one of the top Best Picture candidates and should be able to pick up several nods. The previous three versions of this story all earned nominations as well.

    FIRST MAN



    Two years after the infamous Best Picture snafu, La La Land director Damien Chazelle is back with another surefire contender. The Neil Armstrong biopic First Man had a highly successful festival run with screenings at Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. The responses make it clear it lived up to its on-paper potential, with Chazelle elevating his filmmaking craft once again. First Man should also be a major contender in some of the acting races, namely Ryan Gosling in Best Actor and Claire Foy in Best Supporting Actress. From the sound of things, the film is also going to be a shoo-in for several technical categories. This one delivered the goods.

    First Man experienced a minor hiccup a couple weeks ago, when word spread it does not show the American flag on the moon's surface. In actuality, the flag is present in several shots in the moon landing sequence, it just doesn't depict Armstrong planting it into the ground (a la the famous photo). So, this "controversy" is a non-issue and should have no impact on the film's awards prospects as we make our way through the season. The fact that Armstrong's sons came out to clear the air speaks volumes, and lets everyone know there's nothing to worry about.

    ROMA



    The track record of foreign language films cracking the Best Picture lineup isn't great, but Alfonso Cuarón's Roma could be an exception. Serving as his first movie since 2013's Gravity (which netted him Best Director and was a threat to win Best Picture), Roma is a 1970s period piece following a middle-class family in Mexico City over the course of the year. Netflix released a trailer ahead of the film's festival premieres, impressing many with its lush, beautiful black-and-white cinematography and personal narrative. This promises to be a unique experience.

    Critics adored Roma, showering it with high praise following the early screenings. Cuarón, who has an incredible résumé already, seems to have outdone himself, delivering an awe-inspiring and emotional filmmaking achievement that will connect with viewers around the globe. Netflix's original films may not have the best reputation, but it looks like they're about to get a major boost and establish themselves as a credible player on the awards circuit.

    BLACKKKLANSMAN



    The buzz surrounding this Spike Lee joint has died down a bit due to the festival conversation drowning it out (BlacKkKlansman opened in theaters in August), but we'd be remiss to forget about it completely. BlacKkKlansman found Lee at his strongest in years, deftly balancing the humor and drama of its fact-based story in a way only he could. Despite the story being set in the 1970s, it's a very timely and relevant film that has something to say about the state of the world today, which helps its case. An argument can also be made Lee is overdue after being snubbed previously in his career (most notably for Do the Right Thing).

    An early release date doesn't take BlacKkKlansman out of the running (Get Out and The Grand Budapest Hotel are recent example), but Focus Features is going to need to work to make sure the voters don't forget about Lee's film. Lots of other candidates are making noise right now, and BlacKkKlansman didn't light up the box office with a $45 million domestic gross. A nomination still feels like it will happen, but it's no longer seen as the one to beat.
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    GREEN BOOK



    Every Oscar race has its surprise, and Green Book is certainly 2018's. Dropped on an unsuspecting Toronto crowd, this dramedy from director Peter Farrelly (one half of the Farrelly brothers duo behind Dumb and Dumber) became an instant crowd-pleaser. The film is based on a true story and follows New York bouncer Tony Lip (Viggo Mortensen), who takes a job driving African-American pianist Dr. Don Shirley (Mahershala Ali) through a tour in the deep South. While many critics agree the film takes a relatively conventional stance in its narrative and commentary on race relations, the performances of the perfectly-matched leads elevate the material, giving it a sense of authenticity.

    Green Book's prospects received a major boost when it was named the winner of Toronto's People's Choice Award. Historically, that award has a lot of correlation with the Oscars. Since 2008, nine of the 10 winners received a Best Picture nomination from the Academy, and three of those went all the way to win. It's true stats can be broken, but things are working very well in Green Book's favor right now. With two likable actors at its center (who should make some noise in the acting races), a good script, and comparisons to films like Hidden Figures, Green Book was one of the biggest winners of the festivals.

    THE FAVOURITE



    Fox Searchlight is typically a major a key player in the Oscar race, and it looks like their lead dog this year is The Favourite. Directed by Yorgos Lanthimos, it's a period piece set in 18th century England, following a rivalry that emerges between Sarah Churchill (Rachel Weisz) and Abigail Masham (Emma Stone), as they compete to be the Queen of England's (Olivia Colman) favorite. The film received positive reviews out of Venice, with many people praising the performances. Colman in particular is a standout in the ensemble and should be in line for a nomination. Additionally, films like this are always a threat with the crafts, and The Favourite could get love from the production design and costume branches.

    If there's anything that's preventing it from being the favorite, it's that Lanthimos' sensibilities may be too off-kilter for the Academy to full embrace. The trailer hinted at another wild and quirky ride from the man who gave us The Lobster, and it's worth pointing out Lobster only earned a Best Original Screenplay nod. It'll be interesting to see how this one ultimately performs with the Oscars, especially since there are some sights unseen (more on those in a minute) that could shake things up down the road.

    IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK



    Moonlight director Barry Jenkins is back with what looks to be another powerful, emotionally-wrenching drama. The Oscar-winner adapted James Baldwin's novel of the same name, which tells the story of a pregnant Harlem woman trying to prove her fiancé's innocence of a crime. Upon its original publication in 1974, the book received praise, so the potential is there for it to become a moving film. The trailer was certainly promising, and while reviews for Beale Street may not be as strong as the aforementioned Moonlight, critics are in agreement that it's a beautifully-crafted film that draws viewers in with its strong love story.

    While Beale Street did not win the People's Choice award at Toronto, it was named one of the runner-ups, which typically bodes well for Oscar hopefuls. In the last six years, five TIFF People's Choice runner-ups went on to secure Best Picture nominations. That stat doesn't make Beale Street as much of a lock as Green Book, but it still indicates it has a passionate fan base and should be able to find support from the Academy. A couple of those runner-ups even won the top Oscar, so things are looking up for Beale Street after Toronto.


    VICE


    Previously referred to as Backseat, Adam McKay's unofficially titled Dick Cheney biopic is perhaps the biggest shoe left to drop this awards season. The film wasn't completed on time to screen at any of the early festivals this fall (so its quality is unknown), but the on-paper pedigree speaks for itself. McKay himself is an Oscar winner, taking home Best Adapted Screenplay in 2015 for The Big Short. The all-star cast also reads as a murderers row, led by the chameleon Christian Bale as Cheney (in another transformative performance), 5-time nominee Amy Adams (looking for her overdue first win), and last year's Best Supporting Actor, Sam Rockwell. Of all the sights unseen, this is the one with the most potential to crash the party late.

    It remains to be seen what Annapurna Pictures' release pattern is. Vice will reach theaters in December, but speculation is it will show at AFI Fest in November. For what it's worth, there have been test screenings that are generating positive reactions. Hopefully, general audiences will get their first look at it soon. There's still no Vice trailer, though that could be an intentional strategy on the part of Annapurna's to not get lost in the festival shuffle.

    BLACK PANTHER



    Comic book films have been sporadically recognized by the Academy in non-technical categories, but never before has one been nominated for Best Picture. With Ryan Coogler's Black Panther becoming a global phenomenon ($1.3 billion gross), many believe this is the one that has the best chance to break the mold. Marvel Studios boss Kevin Feige is committing a sizable budget to an awards campaign, feeling Coogler's personal-driven narrative (which connects to themes relevant to today) is deserving of accolades.

    Black Panther seemed like a lock for the Best Popular Film Oscar the Academy announced earlier this year, but it's now been confirmed the category is going to be put on hold as members iron out the criteria. At one point, Popular Film looked like a weak consolation prize for Panther, out of fear of disrespecting a pop culture phenomenon. But now, if the Academy wants to give Panther a prestigious accolade, Best Picture is the only category where they can. The roadblock here is if Black Panther can secure enough first place votes in the initial wave of balloting, which may be difficult since the Academy is notorious for being biased against genre fare. At the same time, Panther will prove to be difficult to ignore.
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    CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?



    The poor box office performance of The Happytime Murders illustrated Melissa McCarthy needs a break from her traditional comedy schtick. Luckily for her, such a change-of-pace is on the horizon. In Can You Ever Forgive Me?, the Oscar-nominated actress stars as writer Lee Israel, who attempts to revive her floundering career by forging and selling letters she claims to be from famous people (playwrights and actors). It all goes great until suspicions are raised. Richard E. Grant co-stars as Lee's friend Jack, who helps take part in the scam.

    Before Green Book brought the house down in Toronto, Can You Ever Forgive Me? was the big surprise of the festivals, announcing itself as a legitimate contender. The performances of both McCarthy and Grant earned raves, making them serious threats in their respective acting races. Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty's script is also seen as a realistic contender for Best Adapted Screenplay. Can You Ever Forgive Me? has been overshadowed a bit by some of the bigger titles that dominated the festivals, but it looks like it will have the support to get several key nominations. The only question is if it'll have enough to make it above the Best Picture cutoff line.

    WIDOWS



    Steve McQueen, director of the Best Picture winning 12 Years a Slave, makes his return with this crime drama. Based on the TV series of the same name, Widows follows a group of, well, widows who decide to take matters into their own hands when their husbands are killed during a job. The ensemble is spearheaded by award-winning actress Viola Davis, and the cast includes a number of other big names. Both of the Widows trailers have teased a different kind of heist film and the film has the potential to be something special. That McQueen chose this for his directorial followup speaks volumes about its quality.

    Following the world premiere at Toronto, it was clear Widows is a first-rate crime thriller, with McQueen seamlessly making the transition to mainstream filmmaking. While some critics felt the film perhaps bit off a little more than it could chew, just about everyone who saw it praised its ambition, scope, thoughtful story, and performances. Davis is a legitimate contender for Best Actress, and Daniel Kaluuya emerged as a Best Supporting Actor possibility for his villainous turn. Widows' ultimate fate will likely depend on how Fox handles it in the campaign. Right now, they're reportedly focusing on making it a box office hit and riding the momentum from there.

    BOY ERASED



    Marking director Joel Edgerton's second feature-length effort, Boy Erased is based on the memoirs of Garrard Conley, a gay man who was sent to conversion therapy program by his parents. Lucas Hedges stars as Jared (the film's version of Garrard), with key supporting roles filled out by Nicole Kidman (also earning buzz for her performance in Destroyer) and Russell Crowe. The film's trailer hinted at a compelling character drama, fueled by strong turns by the cast. Hedges is gunning for his second nomination, just a couple years after Manchester by the Sea. This is the kind of emotional story the Academy loves, so many thought it'd be a big player in the race.

    Screening at the festivals, Boy Erased is seen as a well-intentioned, yet flawed, offering that'll likely go down as one of the year's fringe contenders. Reviews are positive enough that an acting nod or two may happen, but the film's dreams of working its way into other big categories seem to be over. It lacks the enthusiasm behind other titles in the running, as some critics found it to be a little flat and clunky in its execution.

    VOX LUX



    Last year, Neon emerged as an Oscar player with their dark comedy, I, Tonya, which scored nominations for Margot Robbie and Alison Janney (who won Best Supporting Actress). That film even found some success in other awards bodies (a Best Picture nod from the Producers Guild, for instance), so they know how to campaign. So it'll be interesting to see how they choose to handle their new acquisition: Vox Lux, which stars Natalie Portman as a pop star who rises to the top after surviving a tragedy with her sister. The film is noteworthy for its decidedly unglamorous portrayal of fame, exploring all of the downsides of celebrity culture.

    Portman herself is an Oscar winner, taking home Best Actress back in 2010 for Black Swan. This year, that category is set to be loaded with contenders, so she may find herself on the outside looking in. As for the film itself, Neon's early track record as a distributor is enough to have us consider it as an outside possibility (especially since some other festival movies fell short of their aspirations), but it's certainly on the bubble.

    THE BALLAD OF BUSTER SCRUGGS



    Whenever Joel and Ethan Coen are involved, cinephiles take notice. Their latest endeavor began life as an anthology television series, before it was reworked into a single feature film. Buster Scruggs tells six different tales set in the old West as only the Coen brothers could. The trailer highlighted the siblings' various trademarks, such as quirky characters and a dark sense of humor. Netflix is handling distribution, with the movie hitting the streaming giant in November. It premiered at Venice, where it won the award for Best Screenplay.

    The Coens are always ones to watch out for, but Buster Scruggs has its work cut out for it if it's to be a serious player on the Oscar circuit. A common refrain in the early reviews is that this is a "lesser" offering from the brothers, which puts it at a disadvantage. People always expect greatness from the Coens, especially after the likes of Fargo and No Country for Old Men. This isn't to say Buster Scruggs won't be worth watching when it comes out (even second-tier Coens is good), but it's unlikely to jump past any of the other candidates.
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    STAN & OLLIE



    If there's one thing the Academy loves more than World War II, it's films about the entertainment industry. So it's with great interest movie buffs are keeping an eye out for Stan & Ollie, which is based on the true story of comedy duo Laurel and Hardy going on a tour through post-war Britain. Sony Pictures Classics bought the rights, and seeing that they don't have much else to campaign for, they'll put everything they have behind this one. John C. Reilly and Steve Coogan star as the iconic pair, and fans are waiting for the first trailer to see what they have in store.

    Stan & Ollie actually has some Oscar pedigree behind it. Coogan is a two-time nominee for Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay on Philomena (which was co-written by Stan & Ollie scribe Jeff Pope). Reilly himself is a nominee, scoring a Best Supporting Actor nod for Chicago. Nobody is expecting Stan & Ollie to go all the way and pull off a surprise upset, but if the cards fall right once it starts screening, it could fall into the second tier of contenders in Best Picture.

    Of course, this list is not meant to be all-inclusive. These are merely a brief collection of titles that stand a chance at landing a spot on the Best Picture list. Surely, the lineup will continue to evolve until the nominations come out in January. Awards season is just getting started, so it's time to buckle up.
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