RYAN GOSLING - FIRST MAN
Speaking of La La Land, Gosling received a Best Actor nod under Damien Chazelle's direction for that film, and the two were hoping to work awards magic again with the Neil Armstrong biopic, First Man. Unfortunately, the drama's Oscar prospects have taken a nosedive ever since it opened in theaters. Failing to escape the shadow of blockbusters Venom and A Star is Born, First Man floundered at the box office, totaling just $44.5 million domestically. With Chazelle demonstrating his evolving mastery behind the camera, First Man should do well in the technical categories, but it's no longer the Best Picture threat some thought it might be after the early fall festivals.
How that impacts Gosling in the Best Actor race remains to be seen. His performance as Armstrong is very nuanced and subdued, channeling the astronaut's introverted personality onscreen. This contributed to the common complaint First Man is too cold and emotionally distant to truly connect with wide audiences, and there may not be enough voters onboard with Gosling's turn. It's not the typical "showy" acting the Oscars tend to go for, as there isn't a clear scene where Gosling essentially seals a nomination. His work in First Man is great for the film's purposes, though there's a chance it isn't enough to get him across the finish line. Even if Gosling does get his third nomination, he'll have to settle for the participation award.
RAMI MALEK - BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
A surefire way for an actor to launch themselves into the awards race is to portray a beloved historical figure. Enter Rami Malek, who embodied late Queen font man Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody, which became a strong box office hit. The film itself earned mixed reviews from critics, but Malek was universally praised as its strongest aspect. Carrying himself with the necessary swagger and bravado, the Mr. Robot star is the true MVP of the piece, severely outshining the rest of the ensemble (to the movie's detriment) and even doing some of his own singing. It's a very impressive turn that even the Bohemian Rhapsody detractors enjoyed.
If there's anything holding Malek back from breaking into the top five right now, it's the aforementioned reception for the film. It's not going to end up on many (if any) year-end best of lists, especially those from the major awards bodies like NBR, American Film Institute, and others. Malek is going to have to overcome Bohemian Rhapsody's critical standing and transcend the consensus, meaning it will be critical for him to pick up nominations from the forthcoming precursors, like the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild. If he falls short there, Malek's chances of earning a nomination will be gone.
ROBERT REDFORD - THE OLD MAN AND THE GUN
A Hollywood icon for decades, Redford won an Oscar for Best Director (Ordinary People), but has only earned one nomination for acting (1973's The Sting). Fox Searchlight is certainly hoping to add one more to Redford's résumé, hoping his performance as aging bank robber Forrest Tucker is enough to win over voters. The film earned positive reviews earlier this year, but it never picked up substantial traction in regards to awards. Luckily, Redford was seen as one of its strongest aspects, with the veteran leaning on his natural charm to bring his latest character to life. If The Old Man and the Gun is to get any Oscars attention, Redford represents its best chance.
Though the actor has since backtracked somewhat on this sentiment, the popular belief was that The Old Man and the Gun would be his final onscreen performance, a tremendous narrative for Oscar voters to capitalize on. What better way to honor Redford's lasting legacy than to have him in contention for his first Best Actor win? He could sneak into the race on sentiment alone, but the Best Actor field is typically stacked with lots of other worthy performances hoping to get in. Hopefully for Redford's sake, The Old Man and the Gun doesn't slide under the radar and his name gets called on nominations morning.
CLINT EASTWOOD - THE MULE
Coincidentally, there's another film this year about a senior citizen who gets caught up in a life of crime. We speak of The Mule, Eastwood's latest directorial effort that also sees him star as Earl Stone, a horticulturist who becomes a drug smuggler for the Mexican cartel. Like Redford, Eastwood is a previous Oscar winner, but never for acting. He actually has four Academy Awards on his mantle, two Best Directors and two Best Pictures (for Unforgiven and Million Dollar Baby). Eastwood was nominated in Best Actor for both of those films, but obviously lost out.
Eastwood is another veteran who frequently flirts with retirement (this is his first main role since 2012's Trouble With the Curve), so the Academy may not have many chances left to give him recognition in this category. If Eastwood is to earn a Best Actor nod, The Mule will need to be of exceptionally high quality. His filmography has become somewhat erratic in recent years; for every American Sniper, there's a 15:17 to Paris or J. Edgar and The Mule sped through the pipeline (it was in production this summer). Warner Bros. is also behind A Star is Born, which is the clear juggernaut of the season. The studio won't want to split votes, so they're going to prioritize Cooper's movie and not give The Mule much of a push. Eastwood will need to impress big time.
WILLEM DAFOE - AT ETERNITY'S GATE
One of the industry's most respected and accomplished thespians, Dafoe is beginning to build an overdue narrative for himself. He's earned three acting nominations so far, with the most recent coming last year for The Florida Project. Many presumed he was the frontrunner, before Sam Rockwell's performance in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri dominated the season. This year, Dafoe is back in At Eternity's Gate, a biopic about famous painter Vincent van Gogh. It's a meaty role for the actor to explore, and he earned exceptional reviews for his work.
The hurdle for Dafoe is that At Eternity's Gate isn't expected to be much of a contender across the board. It'll be hard for the film to attract the attention it needs in order to make a major splash. This isn't a movie on many people's radars, and Dafoe will need help from the precursors in order to work his way to Oscar night. If he continues to get shut out, then he'll have to settle for the positive reviews and hope for better luck next time.