What horror hex? Although it looks like Gone Girl‘s second-week hold will be strong enough to ward off a slate of newcomers, Dracula Untold is looking like a strong second — and continuing to reverse the box office slide that afflicted the genre the first half of 2014.

Early estimates suggest that Gone Girl will suffer minimal losses in its sophomore frame and could be on a trajectory for $24-$25 million. If estimates hold, the adaptation would be the first R-rated drama since Shutter Island in 2010 to defend its No. 1 position two weeks in a row.

But Dracula Untold scored well on Friday, even matinees. Though it mustered just a 26% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes, it scored an “A-” on CinemaScore, which should boost weekend horror crowds, notorious for ignoring critics and word of mouth. It’s positioned for a bow in the low $20’s.
Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day actually had a pretty good Friday, particularly considering that its core demographic was in school. Alexander scored an “A-” CinemaScore, suggesting it could see word of mouth that’s kept The Boxtrolls near the top of the charts. Its looking at a bow of $17+ million.

The verdict on The Judge isn’t a conviction, but the jury seems deadlocked on the crime drama with Robert Downey Jr. and Robert Duvall. Its 48% critic rating on Rotten Tomatoes won’t help, but it did manage a CinemaScore “A-,” enough to give WB hope for word of mouth. But it’s being cannibalized by the other R-rated crime drama starring a comic book superhero in Gone Girl. Its $5 million Friday suggest a three-day bow around $14-$15 million.

The dark thriller Addicted is scoring well with young adults as Lionsgate’s R-rated infidelity thriller managed a solid 78% on Flixster, suggesting word of mouth could propel the low-budget film to a strong debut of $7.5 million.

In limited release on 317 runs, the Mormon church is jumping into the faith-based film world. Meet the Mormons is a documentary that follows several church members through a day in their lives. The Mormon church groups seem to be buying into it, as the film currently has a screen average of $2,074 and is on the cusp of the top 10. Though it’s hard to discern advance and group sales, MTM looks to make a solid bow of $2.8+ million.

Also in a moderate limited release from Focus Features is Kill The Messenger, starring Jeremy Renner. The film is off to a poor start with a current screen average of just $105 dollars. On 374 screens, Kill the Messenger is facing a $700-$880K bow that could make execs want to do just that.

One film in true limited release is opening fairly well this weekend. The Weinsteins are opening the highly anticipated St. Vincent, starring Bill Murray, which collared $35K on four screens, putting onn track for a $106K weekend and a healthy per-screen of $26K per date.
The estimates:

1). Gone Girl (FOX), 3014 theaters / $8.1MFri. / 3-day est. cume: $25.5M (-39%) / Wk 2

2). Dracula Untold (UNI), 2887 theaters / $8M Fri. / 3-day est. cume: $20M+/ Wk 1

3). Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day (DIS), 3088 theaters / $5M Fri. / 3-day est. cume: $17.8-18.5M/ Wk 1

4). Annabelle (WB), 3215 theaters (+30)/ $5MFri. / 3-day est. cume: $15.5M (-58%)/ Wk 2

5). The Judge (WB), 3003 theaters / $4.55MFri. / 3-day est. cume: $14.2M/ Wk 1

6). The Equalizer (SONY), 3117 theaters (-119) / $2.85MFri. / $3-day est. cume: $9-10M/ Wk 3

7/8). The Maze Runner (FOX), 3072 theaters (-533)/ $2.05M Fri. /3-day est. cume: $7.4M/ Wk 4

7/8). Addicted (LGF), 846 theaters / $2.7M Fri. / $3-day est. cume: $7.5M/ Wk 1

9). The Boxtrolls (FOC), 3270 theaters (-194) / $1.6M Fri. / 3-day est. cume: $6.5M/ Wk 3

10/11). Left Behind (Freestyle), 1887 theaters (+62) / $911K Fri. / 3-day est. cume: $2.9M (-40%) / Wk 2

10/11). Meet the Mormons (Purdie), 317 theaters/ $1.17M Fri. / 3-day est. cume: $2.8-3.2M/ Wk 1UPDATE,

FRIDAY, 10:16 AM: Dracula Untold earned $1.3 million in Thursday night screenings, but Gone Girl‘s late-week grosses suggest it’s in line to become the first R-rated drama since 2010 to hold the No. 1 position two weeks running.

The Dracula origins story from Universal and Legendary debuted on 2,133 screens to a solid-if-unspectacular start. The opening fell far behind Annabelle‘s $2.1 million Thursday screening last week, and slightly better than Gone Girl‘s $1.2 million.

But the David Fincher-Ben Affleck thriller has been charging through its mid-week grosses, earning more than $3 million on Thursday and upping some estimates to $23M-$25M. The secret? Fox reports that Gone Girl is trending like a date movie. The bestseller adaptation continues to draw an audience that’s 60% female — high for a Fincher film. And despite the middle “B” Cinemascore and so-so exit polls stemming from the film’s ending, the scores aren’t hurting the movie, as audiences are turning out to join the discourse.

That could be a harbinger of trouble for the Robert Downey Jr.- Robert Duvall crime drama The Judge. While that film is skewing slightly older, Gone Girl could cut into couples viewing, as WB has heavily marketed The Judge’s father-son relationship. Very early returns suggest a top 5 order of Gone Girl, Dracula, Alexander, Annabelle and Judge. More figures as they roll in…

PREVIOUS, THURSDAY, 2:20 PM: After holding off Annabelle’s possessed doll in a photo finish at the box office last week, Gone Girl faces a new round of challengers in what could be another tight race, this time pitting the David Fincher-Ben Affleck thriller against Robert Downey Jr., Dracula and one peeved kid. And while the field is becoming overcrowded with fall entries, the race should help continue the box office’s rebound from a dismal September.

Although it’s taken some hits from critics as a typical courtroom drama, The Judge has wattage in the form of Downey and Robert Duvall. The $50 million pic from Warner Bros. and Village Roadshow, though, could be the season’s first victim of the overcrowded field. Like Gone Girl, it’s an R-rated drama starring a comic-book movie superhero. But it lacks the public chatter of Gone Girl, and could be cannibalized by adult competition. It’s on track for $13M-$17M, though estimates have ranged from $15M-$22M on all the newcomers, as has their expected order in the derby.

Despite an ending that is dividing audiences in exit polling, Fox’s Gone Girl should see a healthy hold from its $37.5 million debut to retain the No. 1 position with a haul of $20M-$22M and a screen count expanded to 3,284. If Gone Girl does hold, it would be the first R-rated drama to successfully defend its crown since 2010, when Shutter Island held twice on its way to $128 million. Warner Bros’ Annabelle, which opened to a nearly-as-impressive $37.1 million, will likely see a steeper drop-off as horror movies tend to be front-loaded. The Conjuring spinoff is on a trajectory of $15M-$17M for this frame.

What Gone Girl will face at the top of the heap, though, has analysts again conflicted as tracking runs the gamut. Like last week, horror appears to have the Friday night edge over the major newcomers as Universal and Legendary’s Dracula Untold is running a nip-and-tuck race with Gone Girl as Fandango’s leading ticket sellers. Bowing on 2,885 screens, the $70 million Dracula is on track for a bow in the low $20Ms. With a PG-13 rating, it will appeal to teens who couldn’t make it into the R-rated Annabelle.

If there’s a wild card among the new arrivals, it’s Alexander And The Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day. An adaptation of Judith Viorst’s 1972 novel, Alexander stars Steve Carrell, Jennifer Garner and Ed Oxenbould. Like The Boxtrolls, Alexander should feed the appetite of young moviegoers whose demographic has been oddly lacking choices of late. Alexander’s range should be on par to the bows of such family titles this year as Dolphin Tale 2, Boxtrolls and Muppets Most Wanted, all of which opened to $15M-$17M million each. With a budget of $27 million and the the powerful multiplier of kid matinee audiences, Alexander could be a dark horse.

As counter-programming, Lionsgate and CodeBlack offer Addicted, a low-budget thriller about extramarital affairs that has marketed largely to black audiences and is eyeing a debut of about $4M.

http://deadline.com/2014/10/gone-gir...office-848782/