Riding a towering wave of momentum and frenzied expectations, director Ryan Coogler's Marvel superhero release Black Panther took an incredible $25.5 million from domestic Thursday night previews and now appears ready to shatter box office records with what could be one of the top-5 biggest opening weekends in cinema history, not to mention toppling just about every pre-summer box office record you can imagine.


It's almost unthinkable now that Black Panther will deliver anything south of $170+ million through Friday-Saturday-Sunday, and the data strongly indicates possible/likely receipts totaling $200+ million in North America.


Looking at the most recent MCU films' opening weekends from the previous three years, we can get a pretty good idea of how Black Panther will perform over the course of the weekend. There are lower-end and higher-end figures to consider, but overwhelmingly the data points to an average outcome where Thursday's domestic box office accounts for about 30-31% of the film's Friday cume and 12% of the total North American opening weekend ticket sales. In that case, the $25.5 million Thursday receipts will translate into an $84 million Friday and a $212 million three-day grand total.



The lowest-end domestic performance estimate, using the same MCU data, would indicate a $77 million Friday and $183 million opening. The highest numbers are an eye-popping $90+ million Friday and $230+ million weekend. These latter figures are unlikely, but so too are the lower numbers.


If we look at comparisons that include DCEU movies and Deadpool data, then we get domestic averages suggesting a Friday total of about $83 million and $193 million three-day weekend cume. The lowest end with just these data are $75 million for Friday and $153 million over the weekend, while the highest end is $95 million for Friday and a mind boggling $265 million full weekend.


Using averages and comparisons from all of the recent MCU pictures combined with DCEU and Deadpool numbers, we still get a likely $83 million Friday (again, this includes the $25.5 million Thursday preview box office) and $202+ million three-day weekend.


Doing many variations of comparisons and individual film-to-film analysis, I think the data strongly indicate a highly possible/probable outcome of $80+ million Friday total and $200+ million three-day cume. I don't think it will play any lower than perhaps $180+ million, as a more "worst-case" outcome (relatively speaking, that is, since obviously that's a fantastic number).


My own exact domestic estimate is Black Panther will turn its $25.5 million Thursday into an $83 million Friday and $210 million opening weekend. I set $80 million (Friday) and $190 million (weekend) as my low-end figures.


The reason for my bullishness is simple: Black Panther is about to officially become the best-reviewed superhero movie of all time, tying or surpassing The Incredibles and winding up several percentage points ahead of any other top-reviewed live-action superhero release; it has a perfect marketing campaign enhanced by fan events and special screenings that have turned the buzz and excitement up to 11; and it has great word of mouth in the mainstream public, with early word that the audience grade will be at least the usual "A" for MCU releases and quite possibly an "A+" due to some audience demos scoring it particularly high while few viewers give it less enthusiastic scores.


Those things all translate into repeat viewings, and I think a large number of people will go back for a second look this weekend. Some will see it alone or with a friend/spouse and then return with kids or other family/friends in tow. It's already a must-see event-status release, and it's turning into a must-bring-other-people situation where everyone walks out of the theater already anticipating a return.


If Black Panther performs as I expect and tops $200 million, then it will take the #5 spot from Avengers: Age of Ultron (which opened to $191 million) on the list of biggest domestic openings. And if it really can hit in the $210 million range, that would good enough to give Black Panther the third-biggest opening in history.


Now, a quick word about what this all means for the potential final box office domestically and worldwide. If it opens to at least $190+ million, that suggests a moderate final domestic cume would be about $410-420 million in North America, or a slightly better total of around $450+ million. A 50-50 domestic/foreign split would thus put Black Panther over $800+ million worldwide in just about any realistic scenario.


Even assuming a lowest-end $180 million opening and weak 2x final multiplier, Black Panther would finish with at least $360 million domestic and a hypothetical $720 million global tally (on a 50-50 split, again).


Should the domestic/foreign split be something more in the range of 40/60 (as is often the closer comparison for big blockbuster superhero releases), then even a $180 million opening and weaker $360 million domestic total would still point toward a worldwide cume in $900 million territory.


So Black Panther's $25.5 million Thursday means we are certainly looking at an opening north of the previous $170 million higher-end tracking estimates, probably north of $180 million, and possibly as high as $190-200+ million. We can entertain hypothetical lower-end scenarios and play things conservative, but at this point there's little real point in denying the obvious -- Black Panther is going to open big enough that we are looking at a $700-800 million minimum final global total, probably in the $800+ million range and with reasonable, good odds of playing toward $900 million.


That said, it's still obviously way early and everyone is obliged to pretend we don't know pretty well how these things are going to turn out, so I'll note for the record that it's still entirely possible Black Panther was so front-loaded that it deceived us all, that audiences won't really return for many additional viewings, that it will wind up with merely a $150 million three-day domestic total, that it'll lack good box office legs and have a mediocre run, and that it'll finish with a more modest $300 million in North America and $600-650 million worldwide.


That's the worst way it could turn out at this point, and yes it could happen, but for the record it won't and we all know it won't. Consider, though, that such numbers are still pretty terrific, and any movie would love to have this as its doomsday scenario.