MOSCOW, July 20 - RIA Novosti, Maxim Rubchenko. The head of state-owned Naftogaz of Ukraine, Andrei Kobolev, said on Wednesday that he was ready to consider Russian proposals for an amicable agreement on disputes with Gazprom in Stockholm arbitration, although at the beginning of the week such a possibility was categorically rejected. On the reasons that made Kiev radically change the position, - in the material of RIA Novosti.

The main condition of the Ukrainian side is the guarantee of negotiations on a new contract for the transit of Russian gas.

The first step towards resolving the long-standing conflict between the two companies was a statement by Vladimir Putin at a meeting with Donald Trump on Monday. The Russian president said that a new gas agreement with Ukraine is possible, "if both economic entities settle their dispute in Stockholm Arbitration." In other words, on the condition that Kiev withdraws its claim to Gazprom, claims for $ 2.6 billion and arrests of property of the Russian gas concern in Europe.

This gesture of goodwill in Kiev is not appreciated. Commercial director of Naftogaz Yuri Vitrenko in Facebook said that attempts to recover money from Gazprom in accordance with the decision of the Stockholm Arbitration will continue.

"The position of the Russian side actually means that real negotiations are possible not earlier than the decision of the Court of Appeal for Stockholm Arbitration, that is, in a year and a half, will be received," he said.

However, on Tuesday it turned out that Vitrenko misinterpreted the words of the Russian president.

Counteroffer

In Berlin July 17, a tripartite meeting on gas issues in the format Russia-EU-Ukraine was held. The negotiations were attended by the head of the Ministry of Energy of Russia Alexander Novak, the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Pavel Klimkin, the deputy head of the European Commission Maros Shefovich, the head of Gazprom Alexei Miller and the head of Naftogaz Andrey Kobolev.

Ukrainians came to Berlin with a proposal to reduce the rate for pumping gas by 20 percent, but on condition of the full load of the gas transportation system (GTS) of Ukraine. The idea is bold, but unreal.

The matter is that the Ukrainian gas transportation system is designed for pumping at least 140 billion cubic meters of gas. That is how much it passed through it at the time of the peak load in 1998, when almost all the transit of Russian gas to Europe was via the Urengoy-Uzhgorod pipeline.

However, in 1999 the Yamal-Europe pipeline crossed Belarus and Poland, and the share of Ukrainian transit decreased to 75 percent, and with the commissioning of Nord Stream in 2011, up to 50 percent of the maximum load.

The full load of the Ukrainian GTS is possible only in the event of Gazprom's refusal from all other export pipelines and Kiev's return to the status of an exclusive transit of Russian gas.

Not surprisingly, neither Russia nor the EU representatives paid attention to Kiev's demands, focusing on more realistic options.

"The Ministry of Energy of Russia suggested that Ukraine voluntarily suspend the seizure of Gazprom's assets in Europe as part of the execution of the decision of the Stockholm Arbitration," Alexander Novak said. "In my speech, I outlined the issue, including the suspension of the seizure of property, voluntary, until the final decision of the appellate instance Swedish court ".

The first reaction to this Kiev was predictably negative. "Russia's attempt to agree on an out-of-court settlement of cases on which the Stockholm tribunal has already made a decision will not pass." It is necessary to follow generally accepted legal norms and international law, "Pavel Klimkin wrote on Twitter.

But the very next day, Naftogaz expressed its readiness to discuss the settlement agreement. The reason for this reversal is quite obvious.

Last chance

In Ukraine, on March 31, 2019, the next presidential election should take place. Apparently, Poroshenko will lose them.

According to the results of polls conducted in the first half of July, he occupies only the sixth place - only 7.85 percent of voters are ready to vote for him. The favorite of the pre-election race of Yulia Tymoshenko - 17.1 percent.

The main claims of the population to the current authorities are related to the economic situation. Ukraine's GDP contracted from 183.4 billion dollars in 2013 to 112.1 billion in 2017, exports - from 63.3 billion to 43.3 billion.

The state debt grew from 584.1 billion hryvnia (as of January 1, 2014) to 2068 billion (as of May 1, 2018). Tariffs for housing and communal services increased by 1135 percent, while real incomes fell 2.3 times. According to the World Bank, the number of Ukrainians living below the poverty line has increased by 67 percent since 2014.

According to the sociological group "Rating", more than 71 percent of Ukrainian citizens believe that the country is moving in the wrong direction. But for Poroshenko's team, it's too late to change priorities, so the representatives of his team continue to repeat the inadmissibility

Nevertheless, everyone understands that Ukraine risks to remain without transit of Russian gas from 2020, and then the economy will finally collapse. Of course, Poroshenko's opponents will remind the voters about this in the pre-election race more than once.

Therefore, against the background of militant public statements by Kiev officials, Naftogaz quietly tries to restore relations with Gazprom and save the Ukrainian economy from complete collapse. Most likely, an amicable agreement will be concluded, and on Russian terms.