Why the Broncos are bad news for bookies

THE Broncos enter the 2018 NRL finals with ominous momentum which has not gone unnoticed by punters.

Tough wins over premiership fancies South Sydney and the Sydney Roosters were followed by Brisbane’s high-octane hammering of Manly to earn a home final against St George Illawarra at Suncorp Stadium on Sunday.

The Broncos are by far the best backed for the premiership and the worst result for the bookies.

Being a Sunday game, it has been relatively quiet at the start of the week but Ladbrokes is expecting a late rush with Brisbane all the rage as the shortest-priced team of the opening weekend of finals.

The Roosters are still the premiership favourites but punters seem to be hedging their bets a little as they face the in-form Cronulla.

Like Brisbane, the Sharks are on a roll at the right time of year and are attracting a majority of bets.

In Melbourne, it is also the outsiders who are fancied, with South Sydney firming off the back of early support in what is the tightest betting contest of the weekend.

There is a chance that, based on early trends, the Storm could start as outsiders in a final on their home ground.

AFL
THE genuinely simmering rivalry between the Sydney Swans and GWS goes up another notch when they meet in the finals for a second time Saturday.

The Giants prevailed last time the teams met in September but the Bloods went on to make the grand final regardless.

GWS will start as outsiders at the SCG where they have only won once but punters are sniffing an upset.

Almost double the money is being placed on the Giants who could be even shorter than their current price of $2.15 come Saturday afternoon.

The remaining two finals of the weekend are all very tight from a betting perspective.

Melbourne and West Coast are both narrow favourites, but the early money has been for Geelong and Collingwood respectively.

INTRUST SUPER CUP
THE winner of the clash between Redcliffe and Burleigh will secure a place in the grand final and the $1.60 available for a Dolphins win does look like nice value.

Redcliffe beat Burleigh by 12 points when they met at Dolphins Stadium earlier this season and have won a total of eight of their 11 games in front of their home fans in 2018.

The line of 4.5 points does seem on the thin side.

There was nothing between the Easts Tigers and Ipswich Jets when they met on two occasions this season.

Easts are $1.55 on the back of their dominant win over the Northern Pride last weekend, and that really does seem on the short side.

The $2.45 available for an Ipswich win may be one of the best sports betting plays of the weekend.

NFL
THE NFL gets underway this morning, when the Philadelphia Eagles take on the Atlanta Falcons, and 16 matches every weekend means that there is a stack of betting opportunities.

Backing the New England Patriots at the line has been one of the safest punting plays in sport over the past decade and they are clear favourites to defeat the Houston Texans ($3.30) in their season opener on Monday morning.

The Patriots have lost only one of their nine meetings with the Texans and they have covered the line in seven of these victories.

Another side that look like a safe bet to cover the line are the Green Bay Packers.

They have won 10 of their past 12 games against the Chicago Bears and they have covered the line in 17 of their past 25 games against their arch rivals.

BEST BETS

RACING
Lean Mean Machine did plenty wrong as a two-year-old, but he was still able to beat Zousain to win the Sires’ Produce before he flopped in the J.J. Atkins. His trials have only been fair, but there is a bit of X-factor about the Zoustar colt and there is no doubt he is well over the odds at $15 in the Run To The Rose.

Lean Mean Machine To Win @ $15

NRL
The Brisbane Broncos have been exceptional over the past three weeks and they face a St George Illawarra Dragons outfit that have faded badly. The Broncos have won four of their past five games against the Dragons and they have won their past seven finals games at Suncorp Stadium.

Brisbane Broncos To Win 13-plus @ $2.10

AFL
The home side has won 10 of the past 12 meetings between West Coast and Collingwood and the Magpies have not beaten the Eagles in Perth since 2009. West Coast have won seven of their past nine games as home favourites for a clear profit and they are always tough to beat in front of their home fans.

West Coast To Cover The Line (-9.5 Points)

NFL
THE Oakland Raiders just traded away their best player and are clearly in the middle of a rebuild, while the Los Angeles Rams have arguably the most talented roster in the entire NFL. The Rams won seven of their eight games on the road last season and the line of 4.5 points isn’t anywhere near enough.

Los Angeles Rams To Cover The Line (-4.5 Points)