SATURDAY racing at Randwick sees a host of fancy horseflesh duel it out in the Concorde and Tramway Stakes. We run the rule over the fields and nominate a value bet in each race.

CONCORDE STAKES
THE purpose of this article is to try to find some value winners, and perhaps tell a story about why they might win.

There’s no value in this race with the top two runners at very short odds, but there’s always a story to tell, and at worst those of you who just can’t see the point in betting at even odds can join me in the hunt for a straight-up trifecta tip that might nudge double figures.

In early betting the field falls very much into three strata. The ‘no hopers’, the ‘faux hopers’ and the ‘stars’.

THE NO HOPERS
Let’s start by drawing a line through the five rank outsiders — so out go Boss Lane (6), Kaepernick (4), Memes (9), I’m A Jet (8), Three Sheets (7). I know roughies can, and often do salute — that’s why bookies drive Beemers and punters ride buses but the top two look significantly better than the field and the next two in betting are still well in front of the outsiders.

SOMEONE HAS TO RUN THIRD
We’ll get to the favourites in a minute, but for now let’s see if we can identify the horse most likely to fill out your trifecta ticket.

Music Magnate (2) — A seven-year-old whose best performances came quite a few starts ago and prefers 1200m to 1000. Was positioned for a nice run in the G2 Missile Stakes at his last start but was unable to capitalise and faded to finish eighth of 10 starters — beaten more than 3 lengths in that race by a horse he faces here in The Monstar. Comes from the astute Baker stable and prior to his Missile fizzer they sent him to Dubai to take on some of the best sprinters in the world. Sure he failed to fire in Dubai, finishing 11th of 13 runners but that his stable even thought it worth the shot speaks highly of the horse. It’s been a win or nothing for the old fella over his last 10 starts and there’s every sign this will be another race in which he fails to collect the cash.

The Monstar (3) — The reigning NSW country horse of the year, The Monstar finished fourth in this race last year and went into that race with a similar profile as he goes into this year’s edition. Has a decent record at the distance with 11 starts for five wins and a second, but prefers an extra furlong and I think the top two may prove a bit sharp for him. My pick to run third.

AND THEN THERE WERE TWO
The lightly raced up and comer Invincible Star against the superstar Redzel.

Invincible Star (5) — One of the boom young horses of last spring, Invincible Star won the Group 3 Thoroughbred Club Stakes by four lengths on October 2017 and then backed that up when beaten by just 0.2 lengths by Merchant Navy in the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes on 4 November. Back in training after a 37-week spell and it’s safe to say she impressed in her two trials to date — so much so that Greg Ingham’s GPI Racing have picked the mare for their Everest slot. Has just the one run, for a win, over the distance and has never run on the track. The 4kg pull she gets on the favourite will help, but I feel she’ll need all of that and here’s why …

Redzel (1) — The defending champion in this race and deserved favourite to repeat in my books. The six-year-old son of Snitzel has 7 starts for 3 wins and 3 seconds at the distance, loves the track with 6 wins and 3 places from 10 starts at Randwick and the weight should not worry him either with two starts for a win and place lugging 60.5kg. The clear class in the race and will be ridden by a jockey who never fails to get the best out of him in Kerrin McEvoy. Get on.

PREDICTED FINISH AND BET
The Finish: There’s no value outside of the top two, and I just can’t see anything but the favourites winning. For mine the class, speed and love of conditions will see Redzel home from Invincible Star. Better judges than me say I’m too low on Music Magnate and too high on The Monster but my grandmother always said when all things are equal you have to respect recent form and The Monstar’s recent runs have him taking this in my book.

The Bet: Take a straight-up trifecta with winner: Redzel (1), second: Invincible Star (5) and third: The Monstar (3). The dividend will likely hover around $8-10 which might not sound like a lot, but it’s beats taking the red type you’ll get on Redzel.

TRAMWAY STAKES
The Tramway is a Group 2 race run over 1400m — a distance that is long enough to test horses that can run a good 1200m and short enough to interest milers who have a bit of toe. Unlike the Concorde, the field is pretty open and is full of class with six Group 1 winners among the 13 runners.

TOSS THEM OUT
As above, let’s start with those horses we can dismiss.

Youngstar (10) — While it’s fraught with danger to dismiss a horse trained by Chris Waller and ridden by Kerrin McEvoy, I’m going to do it. Youngstar ticks the class box, winning the Queensland Oaks and The Roses and running a game third in the Queensland Derby, But the distance looks a bit short for her and she finished 7 of 8 and 8 of 8 in her two quiet trials. Could sprint well fresh, but watch in the spring when she gets out to 2000-2400 metres.

Duca Valentinois (7) — Godolphin veteran who comes into this race fresh off a 14-week break. Had a good run prior to his break, winning the Group 3 Lord Mayor’s Cup in Brisbane, and won a trial coming into this race. Despite that, I’m putting a line through him. Another who prefers it longer than 1400 and not really at the class of these.

Takedown (9) — The distance is a stretch for this 1200m specialist. Finished fourth at last start in an honest effort, but he finished 5.2 lengths off the winner of that race (Le Romain) and meets the same horse 4.5kg worse at the weights. Pass.

Egg Tart (5) — Last year’s Queensland and South Australian Oaks winner is better over more distance and is being aimed at the Caulfield Cup later in the spring. Resuming after a 13-week spell and was well beaten in both trials prior to this race. Meets stablemate Comin’ Through 1kg worse at the weights than when beaten in the Doomben Cup in June. Far from the worst but I can’t see a top-three finish.

ROUGHIES WITH MERIT
Arbeitsam (8) — Ran a fine third in the Group 1 Doncaster last preparation where he was just nosed out of second by Comin Through and gets slight pull in the weights on that run. Likes the distance and has performed well when fresh — though never been tested first-up at this grade. Not the worst.

Nettoyer (13)
— Likely to want it a bit further and wetter, but I’m lifting her from the ‘No’ category to ‘Maybe’ on the back of a strong finish in her last start, which was over 1300m, and the fact she will be carrying just 53kg. She’s better than her quote of $51.

Tom Melbourne (12) — ‘Perenial bridesmaid’ with 20 starts at group level for no wins and 10 placings. Has never won below 1700m but is weighted below his best, has trialled nicely and does go well fresh. Cannot rate him as a win chance due to his penchant for finding one better so often but you would want to throw him in for a place in a wide trifecta.

TOP TIER
Lanciato (9)
— There was plenty to like about his last run, a fast-finishing fourth four weeks ago in the Missile Stakes over a distance (1200m) that was well short of his best. Loves this distance with five wins and three places from nine starts over 1400m. Gets a 1kg pull in the weights over Pierata from The Missile and has Tommy Berry on board. That’s the good. Now for the bad … the draw does him no favours as he jumps from barrier 12 and he has never run a place at this grade. Have him running fifth due to the barrier, but with luck in running will finish higher than that.

Dixie Blossoms (11) — Tough mare who loves the distance, loves the track, races well fresh and has solid form at this class. Plenty to like here, only thing keeping her out of my top three is the class of those ranked ahead of her.

Comin’ Through (2) — Has good form at the top level (four wins and four places at group level), has won or placed at every start over the distance and track/distance. Weighted quite well despite carrying just a kilogram less than the toppy, as has been more than holding his own at WFA. The stable see this as a stepping stone to Group 1 success in the spring and are expecting a top three finish. That seems a fair hope.

Le Romain (1) — Multiple Group 1 winner who does not know how to run a bad race. Impressive last-start winner in the Group 3 Show County Quality over 1200m and will not have any trouble at the weights. Expect him to be ridden forward from the wide barrier (10) and he’s tough enough to hold off all but the best chasers.

Pierata (4) — Was scratched on Friday due to a leg problem.

PREDICTED FINISH AND BET
I’m a fan of an exotic here with Le Romain to win then adding the remainder of my top tier for second. Throw in Tom Melbourne and Nettoyer for third/fourth and cross your fingers a roughie gets up to improve your value.