At a fundamental level, represents two different answers to the same question: will he be worth his next contract?

While expressed simply, that question involves multiple pieces of analysis. The first is player evaluation. This includes both objective and subjective components, particularly for Dallas. While Philadelphia has had time to figure out how Noel fits in with their other pieces — even though Noel and presumptive Rookie of the Year Joel Embiid played just eight minutes together — the Mavericks have to use the information in front of them to ascertain both his ability as a player now and fit in coach Rick Carlisle’s system.

DEVENEY:

The second (and arguably more interesting) component in Noel’s case is projecting the value of his next contract. There are a series of different projections and calibrations that come into play, and Noel may be at the forefront of a few of them in the 2017 free agent class. Centers have been prized for years, but the combination of ample supply and reduced demand has . While elite big men will always have value and drive interest, players outside of that class will have a tougher time moving forward.

Where Noel fits in will be a matter of opinion and speculation around the league. Dallas’ fundamental challenge is one felt by Portland and Miami last summer: it only takes one team valuing your restricted free agent highly to force a hard decision. Both Allen Crabbe and Tyler Johnson pushed their prior teams to the absolute brink with lucrative offer sheets from the Nets with both the Blazers and Heat matching. While those and Enes Kanter’s max offer sheet from the Trail Blazers in 2015 represent the outer limit on one end, there are also talented players like Khris Middleton and Will Barton who have either taken a lower salary or ended up with less due to the nature of the process.

While restricted free agency combined with individual maximum salaries makes the process very team-friendly for elite players, it gets substantially more complicated for anyone below that rarefied air. There, both prior teams and prospective teams have to define where a player would be properly paid along with what other offers could be on the table. Dallas’ case with Noel could provide an even more fascinating example of multi-stage logic.

The Mavericks’ problem is that second camp, exemplified by Portland’s offer to Enes Kanter. Whether due to their own high evaluation of the talented center, knowledge that Oklahoma City could not lose him or both, Kanter ended up with a max offer sheet which included a fourth year player option. The Thunder ended up matching and are now dealing with an expensive roster, in part because of their $17 million backup center. That process may give Dallas’ front office cold sweats over the next four months, and for good reason, since it only takes one team going in that direction to create a very expensive dilemma.

NOVICK:

Part of the fun of free agency is that despite the ability to make informed predictions, surprises can always come. Last summer, both Seth Curry and Dewayne Dedmon’s prior teams withdrew their qualifying offers while Crabbe received that monster offer sheet from the Nets. In the case of Noel, Dallas could argue that two second-round picks bought them both the ability to make an informed decision and the possibility that the talented center’s market dries up.

The 2017 free agent process will be very different than 2016 in no small part due to the out of control spending last summer. Fewer teams will have enough cap space to make a nightmare offer, and many of those will not be interested in a center, a group that presumably includes the Sixers. Philadelphia had full knowledge of the possibility that the process could work in their favor as well, but the presence of Embiid puts them in a completely different position — though Noel has enough talent to be a part of their future at a reasonable price. That said, Dallas possesses a greater need for a center of the future, fewer other means by which to add that center and a different system for Noel to play in.

We will not know until early July which team correctly answered the core question of whether Noel will be worth his next contract, and the time between now and then will be absolutely fascinating.