IDC has released its latest numbers for smartphone OS market share, and unfortunately, it means we can likely close the book on Windows Phone.

Windows Phone has a tech journalist problem. A lot of tech journalists, myself included, like Windows Phone. It’s stylish and attractive, and its UI makes sense — at least at the top level, and in a way Windows 8 never did on the desktop. But the way tech journalists get excited about an OS is to have a flagship device, and we haven’t had a really good one since the Nokia Lumia Icon, which Verizon never marketed, and the Lumia 1020 and HTC 8X before it.

Microsoft has countered that Windows Phone is the phone for everyone, and as a result, we’ve seen nothing but low-end to midrange devices here in the US like the Lumia 830, and low-end phones in other countries. That strategy hasn’t worked either, though. The way consumers get excited about a phone is to be able to buy it, in stores, with employees that care about selling them, and with tons of apps people want to run that their friends are already running. Microsoft has had the opposite of that experience.

IDC’s latest research data is disturbing if you’re a Microsoft fan. Essentially, almost the entire world market (96.3 percent) is stabilizing around Android and iOS. While global shipments of Windows Phones increased 4.2 percent, from 33.5 to 34.9 million units, its market share actually fell back down below three percent, which is a horrible sign. (BlackBerry has completely flatlined, but we knew that already, and the company itself is clearly repositioning for the enterprise market.)

I’ve owned, used, and written both positive and critical columns about Windows Mobile devices for years. I’ve been a pretty strong proponent of Windows Phone since its inception, because it was both so beautiful and streamlined compared with what came before, and because it was fundamentally different, yet equally as useful and valid as the way iOS and Android are designed.


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Up until now, Windows Phone has struggled, because only its owners love it. Not developers, not wireless carriers, and not the device manufacturers necessary to create a robust ecosystem around it. When popular apps finally appeared, they’re crippled compared with the Android and iOS versions. Microsoft never had a good browser or even a real version of Office for far too long with Windows Phone. And for some reason, Microsoft never figured out how to leverage the awesome Xbox 360 to create some kind of killer mobile gaming experience.

Some people are still bullish that the new Windows Phone 10 will change things. It’s finally going to realize the “one state, multiple devices” paradigm. It’s Microsoft’s first shot at branding a new series of devices on its own, instead of with Nokia’s name on them. And the OS certainly looks good on its own, if still way unfinished. I love the new notification bar, and the new photo app and OneDrive integration look great. (I’m not big on voice activation, so I’ll leave the Cortana analysis to others; I never use Google Now or Siri, either.)

But if Microsoft is targeting a fall release — and that looks highly optimistic, given that the company will still have to build phones and then get them approved on U.S. carriers — the outlook for Microsoft is dim. They have tremendous cash reserves, so this isn’t about Microsoft going out of business or anything sensationalist like that. The desktop is going nowhere, and Windows 10 could be a smash success like Windows 7 was, from what I’m seeing. I can’t wait to build a new PC running Windows 10 when the opportunity arrives. (I had less kind things to say about Windows 8.1.) But Windows Phone 10 is a different, and much sadder story.


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